Last weekend of September brings record cold

By Rod Hill on 30-Sep-19 17:42.

The wild weekend weather was highlighted with Sunday’s headline of the coldest September
day on record for the Rose City!  Downtown Portland recorded a high temperature of 49 degrees,
becoming the only September day in 145 years of record keeping to not reach 50 degrees.  In
fact the previous record for holding in the 40s  early in the fall season was October 12, 1881.
 
More fallen records for September 29th, include 52 degrees at PDX, tying the coldest high 
temperature for the month of September, set back in 1948.  The following cities also tied or 
set a new record for the coldest September afternoon:   Vancouver, Hillsboro, Troutdale and McMinnville. 
Astoria’s Sunday high of 54 degrees set a cold record for the date. 
 
The cold air fed heavy snowfall over the Cascades with snow levels dipping below 3,000 feet.  For the
weekend, Timberline received 11”, Meadows 8” and a report of 6” at 4,600 feet.  While locals realize 
fall snows typically fall and quickly melt, the early dump is always good for moral!
 
The last chapter of our chilly episode hit the Willamette Valley and southwest Washington this morning with
the coldest early fall temperatures to date.  No records, but PDX dipped to 39 degrees, marking the first
fall morning below 40 degrees.  One reporting site in east Battle Ground reported frost and 32 degrees.  
Similar chilly temps under clear skies are expected Tuesday morning.   
 
The upper low that provided our crazy weather is moving east out of the Northwest today, allowing sunny skies
and temperatures on the rebound.  Forecast models do show below normal temperatures most days
through mid-October.  Normal high for Portland is 70 degrees with a normal low of 49 as October begins. 
 
If you are wondering, there is seldom a correlation between September and October weather and what is to come
for the winter season. 
 
KGW Meteorologist Rod Hill

First possible fall freeze

By Rod Hill on 26-Sep-19 17:41.

Today’s weak cold front is the first push of colder air returning to the Northwest.  A  more
impressive cool-off arrives Friday, bringing increasing showers and eventually the coldest
overnight lows and daytime highs of the early fall season. 
 
Assuming showers mostly end for the valley Sunday morning, Portland will dip below 50 degrees 
for the 1st time this fall season.  The air will likely be dry and cool enough to produce widespread
temperatures in the 30s Monday morning, including the possibility of frost in spotty locations, such
as Hillsboro, Battle Ground and other usual morning cold spots.  Monday and Tuesday will bring
the first realistic chance of freezing temps to the valley, although Portland will likely hold near 40 degrees. 
 
It all means that sensitive plants you are not ready to lose, should be protected.
 
Also, travelers should be alert for the first snow showers of the season at pass level, starting Friday 
overnight through Sunday.  Ground temps at pass level will likely hold above freezing during the day, 
meaning no significant icing is expected.  If the skies part, we may all be treated to a visual fresh skirt of
snow on the high country Sunday morning!
 
Meteorologist Rod Hill

 

EF-0 TORNADO CONFIRMED

By Rod Hill on 10-Sep-19 00:01.

NWS confirms an EF-0 tornado Sunday for three minutes, 6:44-6:47 pm in western Multnomah County. Winds estimated at 65 mph, path length 800 feet by 360 feet wide at maximum. No injuries but minor damage reported at Plumpers Pumpkin Patch near Cornelius Pass Road.  

The weather service did not find any damage in Clark County and believes the funnel cloud either did not touch down or did so briefly in the Orchards area with no consequence. So for the record book, it looks like one not two Sunday tornadoes.  

An upper level low and disturbance along with 85 knot jet winds aloft and much calmer winds at 5,000 feet may have produced the rotation and wind speed shear to spawn the tornado. 

Rod Hill

 

Tuesday sets record high temperatures

By Rod Hill on 28-Aug-19 00:01.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OREGON
0425 PM PDT TUE AUG 27 2019

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET ON AUGUST 27TH, 2019...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 98 DEGREES WAS SET AT PORTLAND OR
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 97 SET IN 1972.

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100 DEGREES WAS SET AT EUGENE OR TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 98 SET IN 1972.

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91 DEGREES WAS SET AT ASTORIA OR TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 88 SET IN 1894.

EF-O Tornado Confirmed in Portland

By Rod Hill on 03-Jul-19 00:55.

Monday July 1, 2019

National Weather Service confirms EF0 tornado, Sunday at 5:24 pm, lasting 6 minutes, 3 miles N/NE of downtown Portland. Winds estimated at 80 mph, a 1 mile storm path width max width of 40 yards. No injuries, storm survey below:

Survey Summary: Tree damage observed, with several large branches down. A few large trees with shallow roots were uprooted along Going St. between 16th Ave. and 21st Ave. Power pole was leaning over on Going St. and 21st Ave. Some shingles torn off roofs at 13th Ave. and Wygant St. as well as 18th Ave. and Going St. Gutter was also torn off house at 18th Ave. and Going St.  A few bricks came off of a chimney at 25th between Prescott St. and Skidmore Street. 

Public Information Statement
 National Weather Service Portland OR
 339 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2019
 
 ...NWS STORM SURVEY OF EF-0 TORNADO IN NORTHEAST PORTLAND...
 
 New information has extended the damage path to 38th Avenue and 
 Shaver Street. No changes to rating or strength of tornado.
 
 EF Scale Rating:        EF-0
 Estimated Peak Wind:    80 mph
 Path Length:            1.60 miles
 Path Width  (Maximum):  40 yards
 Fatalities:             0
 Injuries:               0
 

Tuesday Weather Shift To Bring Needed Rainfall

By Rod Hill on 13-May-19 10:16.

Monday will bring one more warm, sunny afternoon with highs in the 70s before a cool, showery weather pattern returns Tuesday. Right now, rain is likely to develop Tuesday afternoon and mostly end by the evening hours. Valley rainfall tomorrow could reach .25 inches with highs in the low 60s. More rain is expected to develop Wednesday. Starting tomorrow, each 24-hour period will see at least a chance of showers.

Forecast models show mostly cool days with no 80 degree temperatures through the 30th of the month with up to 2.00" of needed rainfall in the weeks ahead. This pattern shift if true, is great news in terms of delaying the up-coming fire season.

Rod Hill

Summer Outlook 2019

By Rod Hill on 01-May-19 22:06.

 
 
The outlook from the National Weather Service May through July projects all of the western United States to see above normal temperatures when averaged over the three month period.  The map on the right shows a below normal rainfall pattern for the same time period for north-western Oregon and western Washington, while much of the country is likely to see above normal rainfall as indicated by the green shading. 
 
 
Summer Outlook - NWS
Caption
 
 
The May outlook shows temperatures and rainfall may be closer to normal than a warmer and drier June and July.  If true, our summer season will get hotter and hotter, starting in mid to late June and building through August. 
 
There is some hope that the summer of 2019 will be less hot than one year ago.  The weak to  building El Nino pattern that is taking hold, historically leads to no more than twenty 90 degree days in Portland.  Last summer set the Portland record for heat with 31 days reaching 90 degrees.
 
My closing thought is a hot reminder that our climate is in a warming cycle.  Portland’s last 10 summers have averaged 18, 90 degree days.  The 30-year climate average is 11 hot 90 degree days.  I believe many forecasters would agree unless you have strong reasoning to forecast cool, the best bet is to forecast warmer than normal summer temperatures. 
 
Meteorologist Rod Hill
 
 
 

WINTER ADVISORY, SNOW LIKELY TONIGHT

By Rod Hill on 26-Feb-19 23:24.

THE NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Portland, Salem and all areas in purple on the map. This next round of snow starting mid to late evening and continuing through tomorrow morning may drop 1-3" of snow. The best chance of more than an inch will be in the hills and south of Portland. Obviously, each snow forecast has come true, but so far nothing has covered all areas. Maybe tonight is the night?

WINTER STORM WATCH TONIGHT - MONDAY

By Rod Hill on 24-Feb-19 14:55.

 
WINTER STORM WARNING SOUTH OF PORTLAND, INCLUDES SALEM
 
 
Below is the surface map mid-morning Monday from the GFS model. Note the  L center is
cutting across Crater Lake.  The position of the low puts our region in the snow zone,
with Portland on the northern edge of accumulation.  If this position holds, I would expect:
 
1.  Little to no snow north of Portland or Vancouver / heaviest amounts up to 4 or 6” south
toward Salem and Albany and the east side around near Mt. Angel and possibly as far north
as Sandy and east Multnomah county.  
 
2.  Portland downtown, north to Vancouver and west to Hillsboro may see nothing or 1-2”
at most.  Heaviest snow will fall late tonight, ending before noon Monday.  Daytime highs
around Portland will rise into the mid to upper 30s during the day and possibly 40 degrees
in some areas.  
 
3.  Keep in mind, some forecast models show 6-8” of snow.  Keep an eye on Salem, Silverton
and other south to east locations for a possible snow bulls-eye.  
 
This looks to be a classic case of Portland being right on the edge from getting snow to missing out!
 
Rod Hill
 
 
 
 
 
 

Snow Likely For Portland

By Rod Hill on 08-Feb-19 00:00.

ALERT FOR LIKELY SATURDAY SNOW AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT
 
Confidence remains high that lowest elevations of the I-5 corridor from Albany to Vancouver
will see Friday evening rain with snow levels near 1,500 feet and surface temperatures 
holding in the mid 30s through the midnight hour.  Total moisture Friday night will be near
.25 inches, which would drop 4” of snow near the snow level. 
 
SATURDAY MORNING & NIGHT:  All moisture to fall as snow showers or fairly steady snow. Surface
temps are uncertain, but Portland and Salem may hold above freezing through mid-morning. 
A developing low center will deepen during the day as it drops south, which will bring cold
air advection and likely freezing afternoon temps at sea level, leading to widespread sticking
snow, including at the coast.  Likely snow through much of Saturday night will bring at least 2-3”
of low level accumulations and possibly more like 4-5 inches.  East winds will become increasingly
gusty during the day, 10-25 mph, gusty to 40 near the gorge.  Once again, daytime temps in the 
metro valley will top out near 36 degrees but could be 30 degrees by 3:00 or 4:00 pm. 
 
SUNDAY:  Snow will be cut to flurries by sunrise with early temps 20-26 degrees.  Look for flurries
or  light snow showers during the day with cold high temps in Portland and Salem near 34 degrees. 
Winds will be light. 
 
SUNDAY NIGHT:  A fast moving low center, dropping northwest to southeast will bring 2-3” of snow,
setting the stage for icy, snow covered roadways Monday morning.  Low temps 27-30 degrees. 
 
MONDAY:  A quiet daytime, then rising temps to 40 degrees.  Rain develops late day. 
 
NOTE:  Forecast models have backed off on Tuesday snow and my tracking finds a south wind 
flow, which would lead to a rain / snow mix of little if any accumulation near and below 1,000 feet. 
 
The forecast continues to be well above normal through the 20th of the month with most days 
struggling to reach 40 degrees and more snow chances in the days ahead.
 
Rod Hill