Summer Outlook 2019

 
 
The outlook from the National Weather Service May through July projects all of the western United States to see above normal temperatures when averaged over the three month period.  The map on the right shows a below normal rainfall pattern for the same time period for north-western Oregon and western Washington, while much of the country is likely to see above normal rainfall as indicated by the green shading. 
 
 
Summer Outlook - NWS
Caption
 
 
The May outlook shows temperatures and rainfall may be closer to normal than a warmer and drier June and July.  If true, our summer season will get hotter and hotter, starting in mid to late June and building through August. 
 
There is some hope that the summer of 2019 will be less hot than one year ago.  The weak to  building El Nino pattern that is taking hold, historically leads to no more than twenty 90 degree days in Portland.  Last summer set the Portland record for heat with 31 days reaching 90 degrees.
 
My closing thought is a hot reminder that our climate is in a warming cycle.  Portland’s last 10 summers have averaged 18, 90 degree days.  The 30-year climate average is 11 hot 90 degree days.  I believe many forecasters would agree unless you have strong reasoning to forecast cool, the best bet is to forecast warmer than normal summer temperatures. 
 
Meteorologist Rod Hill