Rod's Weather Headlines

Monday Evening Snow - All Areas

By Rod Hill on 2010-11-22

Sunday 8:15 p.m. update:

This Evening:  Scattered showers, mix of snow possible at times all elevations.  Best chance of a dusting will be above 500 feet.  Icy spots will develop, the city center of Portland will likely remain just above freezing.   

Monday:  Morning icy spots, scattered showers, snow mix, no big deal.  A heavy band of moisture will arrive during the afternoon, likely by 2:00 p.m.  Snow levels will sharply fall.  Accumulations in the hills near and above 500 feet could reach 4" of snow.  The city center of Portland could see rain chance to snow - I am not sure.  Arctic air will quickly arrive late day or early evening.  If we still have moisture and I think we will, 1-2" of snow will accumulate on the valley floor. The afternoon rush could be in the middle of a "mini" snow storm.  It is possible that Portland stays above freezing, but I think we get snow, at least in the evening. 

Tuesday:  Arctic Air.  Very Cold.  Early Flurries, Temperatures In The 20S.  Becoming Partly Cloudy, Highs Near Freezing.

____________________________________________________________________________

Watching The Holiday Weekend For Possible Wintry Weather.

Rod Hill

Read More ...


Final Thoughts On Metro Snow

By Rod Hill on 2010-11-22

Looks likely to me that most of the metro below 1,000 feet stays above freezing today with a rain - snow mix.  Heavier precipitation this afternoon could drop temperatures and produce dustings - best chance being in the hills above 500 feet.  

Arctic air arrives from north to south between 4:00 - 7:00 p.m.   All moisture will turn to snow and temperatures will drop to freezing and below.  There continues to doubt as to how much if any moisture will be available this evening.  I continue to believe, late day and or evening snow will blanket the valley floor.  Snow cover of 1-2" will be possible with snow showers or flurries into tonight.  Much colder, but dry Tuesday and Wednesday. 

Read More ...


Forecast Gaining Confidence

By Rod Hill on 2010-11-20

UPATED:  SATURDAY 5:30 a.m. //  Weekend Forecast 

Saturday:  No chance of valley snow - all rain.  Early morning temperatures will be 35-40 degrees.  The snow level is holding near 1,500 feet this morning.    

Sunday:  Could be tricky.  The air looks colder.  Morning temperatures near 32 degrees.  Not much available moisture, but we could find ourselves in the northwest quadrant of a low pressure center, which means snow showers are at least possible!   Forecast data continues to show dry weather Sunday morning.  During the day, scattered showers may contain a snow mix, especially at 1,000 feet.  Any snow sticking in the high metro hills would quickly melt during the day.     

Monday:  Cold, freezing temperatures, snow possible at sea level!  The flow pattern will be northwest with likely showers at times, including early morning.  Monday morning's commute could see a snow shower mix below 500 feet with temperatures near and above freezing.  1-3" of snow looks at least possible 500 - 1,000 feet.  If you live in the hill's, watch the forecast closely, you could have snowy roads.  During the day, temperatures will warm to near 40 degrees.  

______________________________________________________________________

Dry travel all the way to California Tuesday - Thursday.  Dry weather also looks likely over the Cascades and much of Oregon and north into Washington.  Thanksgiving Day looks foggy with low clouds.  I am watching the potential of light rain. 

Read More ...


MONDAY, SNOW IN THE HILLS

By Rod Hill on 2010-11-20

Computer models becoming consistent:

Sunday:  Likely freezing temperatures to start.  Light morning snow showers or flurries will be possible, but we may stay dry until the afternoon hours.  Afternoon snow level near 1,000 feet. High temperatures near 40 degrees. Precipitation likely to increase during the afternoon and be occasional into the night.  

Sunday Night:  Light wind flow expected to be from the west.  If so, the snow level will fall to near 300' by Monday morning.  Precipitation of .20" could produce grassy dustings all areas,  1-3" near and above 500 feet.  Temperatures below 300 feet likely to remain near and above freezing.  

Monday:  Snow level near 300' all day.  Highs reaching near 40 degrees.  Snow - rain mix of showers all day.  1-3" possible near and above 300 feet.  Sea level will likely remain wet and above freezing.  High metro hills total possible snow depth:  dusting to 4 inches.  

Tuesday & Wednesday:  Dry days with a hard morning freeze in the 20s.  

Thanksgiving Day & Friday:  A push of warm air, may increase east winds, keeping cold air in place, holding highs in the 30s with possible ice and snow at times.  I HAVE VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD, PLEASE WATCH THE FORECAST FOR UPDATED.  

____________________________________________________________________

** Sunday night and Monday's forecast is a close call.  The above conclusions assume a light west wind flow.  If the path of the low pressure center changes and winds back to the east, all elevations would see possible snow accumulation.  

Rod Hill

 

 

Read More ...


Colder Forecast, Possible Valley Snow!

By Rod Hill on 2010-11-19

UPDATED:  THURSDAY 8:40 PM

MY OWN SNOW WATCH SATURDAY & SUNDAY, MEANING I AM WATCHING THE POSSIBILITY OF A COVERAGE OF SNOW AT ALL ELEVATIONS. 

A developing low pressure center Friday overnight will bring likely precipitation into Saturday morning.  Surface winds will likely back to the east which may allow temperatures to drop to near freezing.  Forecast charts hold temperatures at 36 degrees, holding snow levels near and above 1,000 feet.  But, it is possible temperatures will cool.  If so, 1-2" of snow at sea level would be possible. 

Sunday morning has a better chance of being cold, but moisture is more limited.  A dusting of snow looks at least possible at sea level.  If so, warming temperatures during the day would quickly melt any snow.   

I place the above chances at 50%.  Meaning I won't be surprised if it happens or if we just see rain.  By the way the snow levels I list, represent the true and consistent snow level in the atmosphere.  Saturday's snow level of 1500 feet is the point at which all would be snow - no mix.  

Read More ...


Rain & Snow Levels Below 2,000 Feet

By Rod Hill on 2010-11-16

Lots of people talking about the cold air behind Wednesday night's cold front.  The valley will get a good soaking Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday.  An inch of rain looks possible.  Behind the front, a low pressure center will hover and produce cold showers with likely hail Thursday, Friday and Saturday.  The large Arctic air mass appears to hold well to our north.  At this time, the air will not get cold enough for anything other than rain and hail showers.  Elevations near 1,000 feet might see a snow shower in the air Saturday.

The Cascades have a good chance of seeing total snowfall reach two feet at 5,000 feet between Wednesday afternoon and Saturday.  The snow could be enough for all Mt. Hood resorts to open!  Snow levels behind the front will drop to 2,000 feet Thursday afternoon and stay there through the weekend.  Cascade travel will be slow at times Wednesday - Sunday.  Please use the new Mt. Hood forecast page to keep yourself updated.

Have a great week!

Read More ...


Ski resorts need 1 - 2 feet to be fully open!

By Rod Hill on 2010-11-11

I spent Wednesday on Mt. Hood, visiting Meadows, Skibowl and Timberline.  Timberline has two lower lifts open and hopes to operate 7-days a week the rest of the season!  Snow coverage from the storm earlier this week is solid all the way down to 3,500 feet.  If forecast charts hold true, a period of cold snowy winter will hit the mountain next Wednesday or Thursday.  Snow levels could drop to 2,000 feet for the first time this fall.  1-2 feet would open all resorts for Thanksgiving weekend!  

Hopes are high for a deep snow pack on the mountain this winter.  La Nina seasons often dump 100" of above normal snowfall.  Interesting to note that the last three La Nina winters did not produce a constant snow pack until mid-December.  All three years went on to have lots of snow.  2007-2008 dumped 791" of snow at Timberline Lodge - 200" above normal!  

Here are the latest confidence numbers for valley rainfall this winter:

75% Confidence of 3-4" above normal

50% Confidence of 6-7" above normal

La Nina seems to be off to a fast start.  Timberline says this is only the 4th time in the last 50 years the resort has opened lower lifts this early.  Portland rainfall since September 1st continues to be 150% of normal!

 

Read More ...


Salem, Astoria, Vancouver, All Records For November!

By Rod Hill on 2010-11-04


Here are the final high temperatures for the date. These four stations either tied or exceeded their all-time record high temperatures for the entire month of November. Some of these records date back as far as 119 years ---
  
Seattle / Tacoma (SeaTac) Airport - 74
Ties all-time record November high of 74 set in 1949 (61 yrs ago). Records date back to 1948.
 
Vancouver, Washington - 72
Ties all-time record November high set in 1908 (102 yrs ago). Records date back to 1891.
 
Salem, Oregon - 74
New all-time record November high. Previous record was 72 set in 1970. Records date back to 1893.
 
Astoria, Oregon - 73 
New all-time record November high. Previous record was 71 set in 1999. Records date back to 1953.

The above data is courtesy of Steve Pierce.  Mr. Pierce is Vice President of the local chapter of the American Meteorological Society.  I will mention that Portland (PDX) had a high of 69 degrees.  The daily record stands at 73 degrees back in 1975. The record high of 73 is also the warmest November temperature.  Portland has reached 70 degrees as late as November 13th. 

 

Read More ...


Early Rain Pace 162% Of Normal!

By Rod Hill on 2010-11-01

Here is something that catches my eye:

Since the start of meteorological fall - September 1st, Portland has received 7.23" of rainfall.  The amount is 2.70" above the two month average of 4.53 inches.  Our early start to the La Nina season is 162% of normal!  I have not done the homework, but I have to believe we have just completed one of the wettest September, Octobers in a long time.

September was 1.71" above normal.  October finishes at .99" above normal.  The latest forecast charts give tomorrow, November 1st a good chance of receiving an inch of rain.  Remember lots of data support this La Nina season to be the wettest we have seen since the 1990s!  Certainly an interesting start that makes you wonder what is yet to come!

Read More ...


Wet October, Outlooks say more coming...

By Rod Hill on 2010-10-31

A wet October will go into the books following what was a wet September.  As of Saturday evening, PDX had received 3.64" of rain with more on the way into Sunday morning.  The October average is 2.88 inches.  Outlooks call for near normal temperatures November with above normal rainfall.  The outlooks continue to call for cool and wet weather December and January.  All in line with this winter's La Nina prediction.  

Things to watch:  Will November or December get crazy with rain amounts approaching ten inches?  If we get winter weather, meaning snow or ice, will it occur between mid-December and January 10th?  The last few heavy winter events have all occurred in the mentioned time frame.  Will February be quiet and dry?  Most of the last ten years have seen hardly any Feb. weather.  Will we see a few strong coast windstorms?  How about a valley windstorm?

All of the above will see either heightened chances this winter due to La Nina conditions - or - are events we are statistically due for.  References refer to the valley and Portland, Salem metro areas unless otherwise stated.  

 

Read More ...