Spring outlook calls for warm weather to continue

By Rod Hill on 2015-03-26

The spring outlook calls for above normal temperatures to continue through the month of June. The outlook map from NOAA, shows warm weather color coded in brown tones across much of the western United States. So far, 2015 in Portland is running a temperature average nearly 4.00 degrees above normal, including the last 21 days in a row with warmer than normal temperatures. You likely recall that February set an all-time record with a mean temperature average of 5.4 degrees above normal.

The NOAA outlook for precipitation calls for drier than normal weather over our region. However, present day forecast models show a good chance of normal rainfall for Portland through the first 10 days of April. I feel a better spring rainfall projection through at least May is to call for near normal rainfall. Total moisture for March to date is 4.51 inches, well above the 3.68" considered normal for the entire month. So far this year, January is the only month to see below normal rainfall at PDX. The water year total dating back to October 1st is near normal with a total of 26.53 inches.

It is true that the metro valley is seeing fewer than normal rainy days. However record daily rainfall has accumulated three times this month alone, keeping precipitation totals on track. All total since January 1st, PDX has enjoyed 11 bonus dry days. Meaning nearly 2 weeks of dry days above the historical average.

Of course news for the Mt. Hood snowpack continues to hover near the record lows of 2005. To date, the snowpack is 24% of average with only 13.8" of stored water should the snow melt. A normal year snowpack would have better than 50" of stored water or SWE this time of year. It continues to be highly likely, that the snowpack will finish the season May 1st with less than 50% of normal. Of course the problem is not a lack of moisture but warm temperatures producing rain not snow. The photo taken this week from Mt. Hood Skibowl is one of only a few days this season showing snow on the resort's front face. Timberline and Meadows have roughly a third of the amount of snow on the ground when compared to one year ago.

Meteorologist Rod Hill