By Rod Hill on 2010-09-27
Latest information on the La Nina pattern in the equatorial waters of the Pacific show the water is continuing to cool. Current reports show water temperatures averaging 1.8 - 3.6 degrees F below normal. Cooling is expected to continue into January. This makes the forecast for a moderate to strong La Nina likely. The expected jet stream flow pattern will place a jet core into southern Oregon, near the California border. We will be in the north and cold quadrant of the flow and close to potential heavy rain bulls-eyes. All data continues to suggest an active, wet winter. This could be the first real "soaker" since the 1990s. Also of concern will be the potential for high wind events, primarily at the coast. I still do not believe there is any confidence in predicting valley snow.
In the short term, forecast charts show warm and mostly dry days through the first ten days of October. Please enjoy the pleasant days ahead. We may need our strength for later!!
Autumnal Equinox, Wednesday Evening