NOAA projects a 75% likelihood that La Nina conditions will remain in place through the entirety of the winter season. The projection is for Pacific waters in the equatorial region off the coast of South America to average -1 to -1.4 degrees Celsius below climate average which would classify as a moderate La Nina. La Nina conditions are the basis from my “active” winter outlook.
Looking at La Nina years as a whole dating back to 1950 and especially zeroing in on moderate episodes the forecast headline for this coming winter is that a dry season would be highly unlikely.
Here is my outlook:
The highest confidence of the outlook is the call for heavier than normal rainfall from November through March. Having 6” of November rain or higher will be key to a wet water year. My projection would lead to a 40” total water year or higher for the 2020-2021 season. (Normal at PDX is 36.03”)