By Rod Hill on 2010-10-07
Headlines from the National Weather Association conference I attended in Tucson, include more numerous La Nina years expected and new radar technology installation beginning January 2011.
A climate, long range forecast expert believes this winter's La Nina will kick-off a 20 year cycle of more numerous La Nina's. The presenter also believes the upcoming cycle of weather will have similarities to the years 1950 - 1970. So I did some checking: The average water year total from 1950 - 1970 is 37.69 inches. Compared to our last 10 year average of 33.23 inches. If the theory holds, the up-coming water year seasons will average an extra month of rain or 4.46" more than we have seen lately. Snow data also favors more active weather to come. Moderate to strong La Nina's between 1950 - 1970 averaged 11.9" of snow. Our last 10 year average is 4.4", even with the 23.7" of the 2008-2009 winter season. Put it all together and you have more clues hinting at active winters coming our way!
The second headline is the first national radar upgrade since the 1988 doppler technology. Installation will take place between January 2011 and March 2013. The new technology is called "Dual - Polarization". The radar will slice storms on both a vertical and horizontal axis at the same time. The technology will provide better data of how much rain is falling, more accuracy in showing hail verses rain and have the ability to show debris uplifted by tornadoes! By showing debris in the air, tornado confirmation will be much higher.
Water Year Ends Sept. 30th (2009-2010)