By Rod Hill on 2011-02-24
Let me begin by saying, a low pressure area tracking south into our region early Thursday morning does have the potential to dump 1-2" of widespread snow at all elevations. If that does not happen, will will simply see scattered Thursday snow showers with a trace of snow to scattered dustings and an inch or so in the hills at most. Morning temperatures will likely be freezing, please watch out for icy spots.
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I accept my job as a forecaster with a great deal of pride, responsibility and hard work. My forecast is just that - mine. My decisions are my own judgements. It always bothers me when people say - "you guys missed it". Or when people assume a forecast they heard from a company I work for is also my conclusion. Forecasting is an individual act. With that said, assuming we do not get 1-4" of snow Thursday morning, my error was believing we would have .25" of total liquid moisture fall as snow Wednesday overnight and Thursday. The amount would produce 4" of snow. The forecast charts have printed out up to .50" of moisture. It is my job to know what to believe and I chose incorrectly. Showers Wednesday hit the Coast Range and bounced to the Cascades, leaving little across the I-5 corridor. I am very surprised at the lack of moisture we had today. I thought we would have 1-4" in the metro hills and similar amounts on the valley floor into Thursday morning. I believe the odds favor a similar shower pattern Thursday - but as I mentioned a morning snow blitz looks at least possible.
This event if it turns out to be nothing is a reminder that unless we have dry weather for a couple of days with strong gorge east winds and high temperatures in the 20s in place as Pacific moisture arrives - snow is never a guarantee. Any westerly flow makes it very difficult to hold temperatures below 32 degrees and for widespread snow to blanket the valley. It can happen and I thought this would be one of those times with very cold air arriving Wednesday night and an active enough flow pattern to deliver the moisture. It looks like I may have been wrong - we will know for sure by late morning.
Again, I sincerely apologize for altering your plans if it turns out to be not necessary. I work in a field that no one is right all of the time. My goal is to be right most of the time.
Meteorologist, Rod Hill
When it starts, how much falls