By Rod Hill on 2012-01-18
I am writing this letter as the coast reports 100 mph winds. It reminds me that people often say - wow, your job is so easy, all you have to say is rain and more rain. Actually, this time of year on a daily basis, forecasters study wind threats at the coast, snow levels in the Cascades and recently on the low levels. Will the gorge play a factor in the weather? How much rain will fall, what is the temperature going to be and on and on and on! Lets say a storm episode over several days from the coast to the Cascades has 10 important elements that a forecaster is tracking. Often, 8 or 9 parts of the entire forecast is nearly exactly correct! Of course, like anything, it is the 1-2 items that people remember and poke fun and anger at.
Here is my record for the past few days overall.
1. Coast to see one it's largest wind storms of the past two years, with winds reaching 100 mph. (this verified about an hour ago)
2. Cascades to see feet of snow (okay - that was easy LOL)
3. Days of areas below 500 feet seeing a mix of rain and snow. Portland metro staying wet, not snowy - despite computer models that showed daily accumulations! (good forecast until last evening!)
4. Daily accumulations of 1-3" possible in the high metro hills. (not a bad forecast, although a couple of 12 hour periods had more like 4" +)
5. Tuesday evening: I said, Salem was in the warm sector and would stay near 40 with rain all night. (this was a good call)
6. Tuesday evening: I continued what I has said all along, Portland & low elevations would stay above freezing and not see any widespread accumulation. ( Okay - I Get an "F" on this one. After days of good forecasting, I blew the two-minute drill and lost the game.)
7. Portland would wake up to temperatures 36-39 degrees, with steady rain falling. ( A Few cold pockets remained, but this was an "A+")
So after days of working, I missed the most important 6 hour period of the entire forecast sequence. It should be noted, the one forecast model I often trust - had been way too wet and two cold for days. However, the temperature profile of the NAM model as exactly right last night and this morning. Many forecasters, I know for a fact predicted last night perfectly, but were not so great in the previous days - however, like my old drama teacher used to say.....nail the opening and the finally, no one remembers the middle. She is likely correct.
Looking back at last night, I am guilty of trying to be too perfect instead of simply saying......I am not sure, but snow will remain possible until early morning. What killed my forecast was a period of light to north winds, north of Woodburn. I expected breezes last night, which would have likely held the temperature up. As for now time to roll up the sleeves and earn trust for the next time.
Two last points. Always take note when the forecaster says there is lots of moisture available, that mean lots of things can happen. Remember, no one that I know of delivers a perfect forecast time and time again. You should expect the forecast during a storm event to be "mostly right". The trick is being ready for the couple of things that turn out to be bad information. (like last night)
As always, thank you for using my forecast,
Rod Hill
Portland Reports 2" of Snow