By Rod Hill on 2012-02-03
Groundhog day is famous for figuring out if winter is almost gone or plans on sticking around. Locally, a lack of fog this morning means, local critters likely saw their shadows and returned to their holes, signaling at least 6 more weeks of winter. Even if true, that means spring would begin on time, around March 20th. Sounds great to me!
Not to discount the groundhog theory, but consider the following:
Forecast charts through the 17th of February, show the lowest snow level at 3,000 feet. Most days, if the charts are correct will see snow levels above 4,000 feet. This is a great indicator of no Arctic or really cold air expected. Once we make it into March, the chance of a large Arctic outbreak becomes less likely.
With mostly dry weather over the next 10 days, we will need a very wet final week of February to finish close to even in terms of precipitation. La Nina remains in place, and National Weather Service outlooks call for cooler and wetter than normal weather through April.
Here is what continues to interest me: All but one of the last 10 February's have seen below normal precipitation. In fact the average over the 10 years is 2.39", only 57% of what is considered average. There seems to be at least a short term climate shift, bringing us very quiet weather the last full month of the winter season.
Our chance for snow as you now, greatly declines once we get into March. If forecast charts are correct, the only chance of significant valley snowfall this season will be the last week of February and the first week of March. There are no signs this will happen. What I am saying is, our chance for snow looks very low until the end of the month. Historically, the latest Portland has had decent snow was 8" on March 7-8th back in 1951. So again, time is running out!
In conclusion, all of the above simply means with a quiet forecast through Feb. 17th, the window for active, bitter cold winter weather is quickly closing. Due to increasing sunshine, that began with the winter solstice, the daily normal high is near 50 degrees as Feb. begins. Remember, past history has shown March & April to be wetter months than February. Maybe winter weather is almost over, but the cool, rainy season has a long ways to go!
Severe Flooding Continues, Central Valley