By Rod Hill on 2015-01-27
If February on Mt. Hood gets off to a warm and dry start, the lack of snow at resorts will become an increasingly large story, not to mention unusual for this time of year. Last season began warm and dry, but a rapid turn around began the last 10 days of January and continued with Timberline Lodge picking up nearly 200 inches of snow through the first few days of March! The Mt. Hood snowpack ended the season at 92% of normal.
Year to date snowfall this season has been similar to one year ago. The snowpack measuring site was 45% of normal to end December 2013 and actually slightly higher this past December at 48% as 2014 ended. The startling difference may lie ahead in the coming weeks. Current forecast outlooks show a drier and warmer than normal February weather pattern for Mt. Hood. A combination of melting snow due to warm temperatures and a lack of snowfall next month would leave the mountain with little chance of ending the snow season much above 50% at best of normal.
The last year Mt. Hood failed to finish the season, ending April 30th, with 50% or better of normal snowpack was back in 2005, when the season finished with a 60 inch snow depth and a snowpack just 44% of normal. The comparison to this year is too close for comfort:
January 25th, 2005, Timberline Lodge base of 43 inches, Meadows base 25 inches.
January 25th, 2015, Timberline Lodge base of 40 inches, Meadows base 32 inches.
The problem this season has not been a lack of precipitation, but rather numerous days with high snow levels and rain falling instead of snow over Mt. Hood resorts. The low snow level of 2004-2005 also delivered near normal total moisture during the months of November, December and January. The spring months of 2005 were dry with roughly 50% of normal precipitation. A pattern we hope does not repeat in the months ahead.
It is important to note, that Portland water needs come from spring rainfall not mountain snowpack. Also, while not ideal, one low snow year can be tolerable. Droughts are made up of multiple consecutive dry years.
Meteorologist Rod Hill
Valley water year in good shape, Mt. Hood needs snow!