By Rod Hill on 2015-10-19
An El Nino pattern that NOAA says could be the strongest on record will dominate the country and the Pacific Northwest this winter season. Typically, El Ninos produce wet weather across the southern United States, including California, and deliver mild temperatures across parts of the north with varied precipitation results.
NOAA's forecast update is now calling for warm Northwest temperatures, but an equal chance of wet & dry weather for our region. In otherwords, NOAA is "backing off" the agencies earlier prediction of dry weather for Oregon and Washington! I have said all along, that near normal rain and snow for our region is possible this winter.
The past two strongest El Nino events of 1982-1983 & 1997-1998, both produced above normal rainfall for Portland. The same two winters produced healthy snow seasons on Mt. Hood!
1982-1983: MT. HOOD MEADOWS TOTAL SNOWFALL 623"
1997-1998: MT. HOOD MEADOWS TOTAL SNOWFALL 385"
Normal for Meadows is 429 inches. Last winter brought 125 inches of snow.
To be clear, the "WILDCARD" of this up-coming winter is the snow level forecast. There is reason to fear that a warm weather pattern overall could produce another winter of mostly rain at Government Camp instead of much needed snowfall. We will have to wait and see.
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MY FORECAST FOR THIS WINTER: I expect near normal rainfall for Portland with two possible snow events dropping up to 8" of total snow for the season. 1-4 high wind events of 50-65 mph south valley wind gusts will also be possible. Temperature averages will likely be above normal.
MT. HOOD: Near normal precipiation, but the snow level is uncertain. Snow levels between 6-7,000 feet would bring another bad snow season, but a snow level near 4,000 feet on average would bring needed snow to area resorts!
Keep in mind, the strong El Nino pattern has the potential to produce a handful of strong low pressure centers that could lead to strong storm events of snow, ice, rain or high winds.
(The above predictions are based on the past strong El Nino events of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998.)
Rod Hill
Saturday storm promises needed rain!