Winter - Spring Months Outlook
By Rod Hill on 2016-01-14
STRONG EL NINO YEARS: 1982-1983 & 1997-1998
Both seasons produced below normal rainfall in November, than well above normal rainfall in January, February and March, followed by a dry April.
OUTLOOK:
1. Portland, above normal rainfall through the end of January.
2. Above normal rainfall likely through March.
3. A dry April?
___________________________________________________
After a record setting wet December that saw 15.24” of rainfall at PDX, January began rather dry, but it now appears a run of wet weather has returned. The last 30 hours have produced nearly 2.00” of rain across parts of the metro valley and PDX now reports 2.33” of January rain to date. Rain projections show another 1.50” coming to Portland through this weekend and an outlook of 5.00” of rain or more for January, which would be above the normal total of 4.88 inches
The above EL NINO PRECIPITATION REPORT & OUTLOOK shows the two previous strong El Nino seasons both produced above normal rainfall for the months of January, February and March. It is interesting to note, that both of those wet years went on to see below normal rainfall for the month of April. So far, dating back to a dry November, this strong El Nino season has for the most part, mirrored the odds left behind by 1982-1983 and 1997-1998. It will be interesting to see if we continue a similar trend.
The wildcard in my Winter Spring Prediction continues to be the snow level. So far, the snowpack is the best at 4,000 feet since the winter of 2012-2013. Confidence is high that above normal precipitation will continue through March, but any week now, the snow levels could rise and stay above pass level. I hope not and this forecaster will be watching and praying for a deep snowpack come May 1st.
Meteorologist Rod Hill
Battle Ground Tornado Confirmed