El Nino Is Strong and Continues

By Rod Hill on 2010-01-24


A strong El Nino with equatorial water temperatures as warm as 5 degrees (F) above normal will continue into early spring.  The National Weather Service outlook for the Northwest calls for mild temperatures and below normal precipitation February and March.  Forecast models show a jet stream track mostly south into California over the coming two weeks.  The flow core will be much weaker and broken this coming week, meaning California will get a break from severe weather.  Interesting to note that early spring plants are showing buds.  By most accounts the budding is taking place at least 2-3 weeks early.  Remember, our last 10 Februarys have been on average about 60% of normal precipitation.  The lack of any major winter event past Jan. 16th over the past 10 years and very quiet Februarys could be associated with a hemispheric trend of an increasing growing season.  This trend of earlier springs is most pronounced here along the west coast.  

All food for thought...