Summer Outlook Holds Promise
By Rod Hill on 2021-06-07
You may have heard that the National Weather Service Summer Outlook for June - August calls for above normal temperatures across all of the Northwest and below normal rainfall. The news is not good as we come off of Portland's record dry spring, picking up just 27% of normal rainfall for March - May or 2.52" in comparison to the climate average of 9.37 inches.
Individual weather models show above normal rainfall in August, which could be an indicator of convective activity, meaning lightning, but we can hope for the best. (The 2nd map shows Canadian model August rainfall - green color being above normal.) The core of summer heat this summer is likely to be centered over the upper Rockies and upper midwest, as seen on the 3rd map in the darker tan color from the Canadian July outlook.
The final map with contours is the June American model that shows a trough along the west coast and hot weather ridging over the midwest. The pattern is expected to hold through the summer months. The west coast trough could be good news for our region, leading to a more normal summer temperature pattern or at least not crazy hot, while giving our region at least a handful of possible rain days.
In short, there is reason to believe our summer will see measurable rainfall each month with a fair share of comfortable days. I do not see more than 20, 90° days, keeping us far under the record 31 hot 90° days in the summer of 2018.
Rod Hill
Record Dry April, Possible Record Dry Spring