By Rod Hill on 2021-10-14
This winter's outlook begins with what is fairly rare, a back to back La Nina winter season. Our region is projected to have a moderate La Nina winter, matching last season's Enso cycle. This will become just the 10th back to back La Nina since the cycle was documented starting in 1950.
{Before I continue, a thank you to Hillcrest Ski Shop for sponsoring my Mt. Hood Ski Forecast. Please check out the friendly service and great selection in Gresham and online: https://hillcrestsports.com/ }
Using history as a guide, this winter will have a greater possibility of being dry to very dry, then being a wet soaker. Below are the main points this outlook will be graded on. Notice colder than normal temps and a good snow chance round out the headlines.
My projection calls for an equal chance of snow in December, January and February. You may recall that last winter's outlook said no snow until January and a good chance of a big storm going into February. The month that looks the most interesting to me is January. Nearly all weather models show a colder and drier than normal month to begin the new year. Take a look at the following weather model predictions:
The flow pattern shows cold air building over the Rockies that could ignite a cold east wind into the valley, setting the stage for bitterly cold nights and possibly a snow and or ice storm.
Here are my overall particulars, beginning with monthly temperatures. Notice all months except November, show potential to be colder than climate average.
Valley snow is touched on earlier, but again 4-6" of total snow is likely. Past years show little confidence to forecast a big storm or simply a few smaller events, but each month starting with December has an even chance of snow on the ground.
Skiers and boarders on Mt. Hood have good reason to feel excitement regarding the upcoming season. While history shows this winter will likely have less total snow than last year, 80% of normal snowpack would be a good year and nearly equal to the 2017-2018 winter that enjoyed an early November start and generally a healthy base into the spring months!
