Christmas Weekend Snow Chance is Real

By Rod Hill on 2021-12-18


EXTENDED THOUGHTS INTO CHRISTMAS WEEKEND:

Typical temp ranges and rain at times Wednesday and Thursday of next week. While forecast models still differ in outcomes, all seem to agree that starting Friday, our air will get colder into Christmas weekend.

As I often do, I am trusting the EURO MODEL to take the lead. The 1st map below is 4PM Christmas Day Surface Map.





The double LOWS near the Canadian border mark the true boundary between a typical air mass and cold air from northern Canada to our north. Notice our region is on the bottom or south side of the low - this will produce west winds and either all rain at low elevations or a rain snow mix, with daytime temps above freezing.

Little change Sunday, fast forward to next Monday’s map below Dec 27th (the 2nd map).







At present, all models agree that Sunday night into Monday, we will finally be in the grip of a north Canadian air mass. Notice the low center over southern Oregon, putting Portland in the snow zone to the north of the low center. Cold air indices are plenty cold enough for 24 hour temps to hold below freezing and all moisture to fall as snow. The Monday scenario would have a good chance to produce at least 6” of snow accumulation in downtown Portland and all low evaluation areas.

Starting this Friday, low snow levels at least below 2,000’ are looking likely and each day will be tracked closely. It is certainly possible, that accumulating snow to some degree occurs earlier than Monday the 27th. Lots to keep track of - Ho...ho...ho...!

Rod Hill
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