Dry, quiet February to continue
By Rod Hill on 2022-02-03
An update to what continues to look like a very quiet and dry February overall. Right now, I don’t see any daily precip totals reaching 1/4 inch in Portland until the 14th or possibly the 17th or 18th of February. Earlier GFS weather models were flirting with cold weather around the 14th, but now the same model agrees with others that snow levels during the said period will likely stay near to above 2,000 feet. The Euro model does go active the final week of the month with chilly highs in the low to mid 40s with heavy rain at times.
Next week's dry spell after a Monday shower chance will likely produce overnight lows near freezing in parts of the valley with clear overnight skies and light winds. Depending on morning fog patterns, each day Tuesday through at least Saturday will warm into the 50s with mostly sunny skies. Daily mean temp averages could be near normal with chilly nights, but mild afternoons.
The air mass image below showing Sunday Feb. 13, clearly shows (in purple) the trend of Canadian air dropping south across the upper midwest and eastern US. This pattern as I have previously stated, is an eastern shift in cold troughing from outlook models going back to last fall. The result is the much milder air mass pattern over the Pacific Northwest that may hold over the next two weeks.
Below is the Euro Model on February 23rd. Notice the cold trough of air shifting to the west (blue color). The model
patterns suggest a rainy final 7 days of the month with Portland low temperature averages around 36-38 degrees and daytime highs in the low to mid 40s. The mean temp average would be roughly -4 to -5 degrees below normal.
Rod Hill
FLOOD WATCH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY