EXCESSIVE HEAT THIS WEEK / Cooler August Expected
By Rod Hill on 2022-07-24
NWS issues Excessive Heat Watch/Warning Monday - Friday for inland areas:
Portland’s 7day shows high temps in the upper 90s Monday and possibly reaching 100 degrees plus Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Extreme highest valley temperatures look to be 105 degrees at most. The baseline valley minimum high Tuesday - Thursday looks to be 96 degrees, meaning we should be at least 96 and plus 5 more degrees or higher in most locations. The hottest days will see 90 degree temperatures around 1:00 pm and possible 100 degree temps between 3:00 and 6:00 each day.
30-day outlook models strongly suggest that this coming week will be the hottest days of this summer season.
As is often the case, there is doubt regarding the cool-down. The Euro model shows 100 degree heat for Portland
possibly continuing Friday and Saturday. All data shows cooler temps by Sunday and valley highs in the 80s
Monday - Wednesday of the following week, August 1st through the 3rd.
The most recent extended update comes from the American CFS model and is encouraging, showing July to be much warmer then August. Take a look:
July hot ridging pattern with a 589 mb height:
August shows a much cooler pattern with a 578 mb height. Multiple models show a cool trough with rain chances between August 13th - 18th, along with valley highs in the 70s.
September trends also indicate a lack of hot weather and multiple rain chances during the month.
Conclusion: This week’s heat wave is likely to be the hottest and longest of this summer. Models show
no current days reaching 100 degrees in August or September here in the valley. There are signs of
a few 90 degree days August 5th through the 8th but model outputs are not consistent at this time. With
cooling expected mid-August, much of next month looks to be fairly quiet.
Rod Hill
July Summer Outlook