By Rod Hill on 2010-09-03
Below is a copy of an email response I wrote to a KGW viewer who asked my thoughts regarding this winter's La Nina season:
Here are my thoughts on a La Nina winter. The only high confidence of the forecast is
that we will likely have an active winter. Meaning, a consistent westerly flow pushing
numerous fronts inland. The result will be normal to above rainy days. Little confidence
as to whether or not we will see a high number of strong storms. I would say, the coast will
likely have a handful of descent high wind events -much more so than last year. Total precipitation
will likely be at least close to normal and may be above, although I believe it has been over 10 years and closer to 15 since we have had a true wet winter. (Actually we are do for a wet winter!!) Snowpack over
the Cascades will be nice and hefty, assuming snow levels average near or below 4,000 feet. I have seen
La Nina winters where the snow level was often above 5,000 feet. As for the valley, the simply truth
is that our snowfall is too sporadic to have confidence in a forecast. I will say, our larger snow events
are more typically during so called neutral winters.
To recap: Wet winter in terms of the number of rainy days, a handful of high wind events at the coast
and high hopes for a hefty Cascade snowpack.
Make sense??
Rod Hill
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