By Rod Hill on 2020-04-09
Our large rainfall deficit and melting mountain snowpack may lead to a long, active fire season. Forecasters at the NW Fire Interagency show July to be at high risk for large wildfires. The April - June outlook map below shows on the left, a forecast for above normal temps over all of the Northwest. The right side map shows all of our region to be at high confidence for below normal rainfall over the coming months.
A water deficit already in place has most of Oregon in drought conditions. The water deficit for Portland is nearly 8" below normal going back to October 1st. Only January since last fall has delivered normal to above rainfall totals.
Persistent drought conditions set up this final map. The red shaded areas indicate a high risk for large wildfires starting in the month of July. Notice much of Oregon and central Washington are in the high risk projection. (I apologize the map is a bit fuzzy)
For more information, you can listen to a 14 minute presentation from the NW Fire Interagency Coordination Center:
Outlook Video_Climate Explanation
It is a well know fact, that a dry spring in the Northwest often adds to what is a typically a long dry summer season. The combo has in the past led to long fire seasons. Of course many factors will ultimately determine the fire risk in the months ahead, but at this point it is likely time for a rain dance.
Meteorologist Rod Hill
SATURDAY MORNING SNOW IN MARCH!