By Rod Hill on 2011-08-07
Then National Climate Prediction Center reports some forecast models are developing a weak La Nina this fall and into the winter months. Historically, strong La Nina's, like last winter's are followed by a weak La Nina. Last winter's strong La Nina has produced the wettest water year for Portland since 1998 - 1999. To date, the current water year total is 43.94". A normal water year (Oct. 1st - Sept. 30th), is 37.07 inches.
Although La Nina winters are historically wet, keep in mind that forecast confidence is only high with a strong La Nina or El Nino. Should this winter be neutral or a weak La Nina, forecast confidence of wet verses dry will be low. Neutral winters can be all over the board. Some of our strongest winter storm events have developed during neutral years. Of course, many more forecast thoughts to come as fall and winter approach. For now, enjoy the sunshine!
A little cool, a little wet