Rod's Weather Headlines

Saturday Night, Sunday Snow Chance Update:  Saturday 9:45 a.m. 

PORTLAND LIKELY TO STAY MORE WET THAN WHITE, AS GROUND TEMPS WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FREEZING. 

Likely Saturday evening rain and snow showers and maybe all snow north near Longview.  Confidence is now strong that Portland and other low elevation areas of the Willamette Valley will stay above freezing until Sunday night.  A mix of rain and snow is expected for the Rose City as ground temps hold above 32 degrees.  The heaviest moisture will fall during the morning hours, light showers will be possible into Sunday night.  

Elevations near and above 300 feet and north of Vancouver, will have the best chance of seeing freezing temps with a dusting to 2" of snow on the ground.  High hills may see up to 3" but the moisture looks to be limited and temps at 1,000' may in spots hold just above 32 degrees.  Morning west winds may also act to keep some high elevation spots above 32 degrees.  Colder east winds will develop during the afternoon as moisture becomes light and scattered. 

Saturday night and Sunday travel to the coast:  2-4" of snow over the Coast Range with possible dustings at the beach!  Monday flurries will be possible. 

Saturday night and Sunday Gorge travel:  1-3" of possible snow, including Hood River.

Saturday night and Sunday Cascades:  6-10" of snow, amounts could be higher, but total moisture seems to be limited.  Snow levels will be below 500 feet. 

- Rod Hill

Live cameras this morning show 2-3" of snow on the ground over the Coast Range near 500 feet.  Cascade foothill cameras show 1-3" on the ground from near 1,000 feet.  Cascade passes as of 9:30 this Sunday morning show 4-6" of snow with higher amounts up high. The hills of the Willamette Valley in wine country show a dusting to 1" of fresh snow.  Other snow reports include:  Amboy, Rainier and Kalama with 4-5" on the ground, Woodland Hills at 1,000' 6" of snow, Scappoose hills, 2-3" of snow and Skyline in the West Hills at 750', 3" of new snow!

Metro areas from Longview to Portland to Salem will hold in the mid to upper 30s Sunday afternoon with a mix of rain and snow showers in the air.  Afternoon moisture amounts will be light.  The city center of Portland may see a light dusting of snow in the grass at times, otherwise wet conditions, not white are expected. 

Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 20s Sunday night into Monday morning with snow flurries expected, but no accumulation.  Keep an eye on next weekend.  The temperature forecast is uncertain as heavy Pacific moisture is tracking to push inland.  Will it be heavy rain or heavy snow and ice?  Keep updated. 

-Rod Hill

POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER UPDATE:  Wednesday 5:35 am  (Dec. 14, 2016)

A low pressure center will track over Klamath Falls to Burns to Boise, Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.  The track will stay well south of the Portland and Salem metro areas.  A big snow storm is not expected, however hours of light snow Wednesday afternoon and evening will be enough to cover roadways and make travel difficult through Thursday morning. 

This storm will give our region a "glancing" blow.  Total accumulation may be as little as 1 - 3" on the ground over the Portland area. Lighter amounts will be west and north of Portland, while heavier amounts will be south and east of the Rose City.  Salem will see 2-4" of snow, Cascade foothill communities such as Silverton could see 4" or more of snow.  To the north, Longview will see flurries at most.  The Coast Range may see only 2-3" of snow and the Cascades a good 6" or more.

-Rod Hill

WINTER STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY THURSDAY FOR PORTLAND BUT SALEM MAY SEE ONLY RAIN

Gusty east winds blowing out of the gorge will pick up Wednesday afternoon and blow through the day Thursday.  Wind gusts near the gorge may reach 50 mph.  The east wind will play a role in setting up cold temperatures as Pacific moisture arrives Thursday morning.

Forecast models now show possible dry weather over Portland early Thursday into mid or late morning.  Light snow or flurries will be possible before heavier moisture arrives before the noon hour.  Sleet or freezing rain will be likely near the gorge, over Portland and north into Vancouver much of the afternoon.  Ice accumulations of .20" will be possible.  Areas near Wilsonville and south to Salem may end up seeing mostly a rainy day.  However, scattered cold pockets, especially near the mountains may see snow accumulation up to 4" and or an icy mix.  All areas except the mouth of the gorge will change to rain during the evening hours.  I am not sure when Troutdale and other east county locations make the change over to all rain. 

At this point, the most certain points of Thursday's forecast is the expected rain over Salem and a period of icy weather over Portland or at least near the gorge.  Please watch temperatures and updates as the potential winter storm develops.

- Rod Hill

A long stretch of possible winter weather at times Monday morning through Thursday.  Monday is looking to be likely rain for the city center of Portland.  A snow mix may be sighted, but ground temps at lowest elevations will hold above 32 degrees and roadways will simply stay wet.  The snow level for accumulating snow may dip to 500' at times, but could hold closer to 1,000' feet.

The chance of showers and a wintry mix continues into Tuesday morning.  Tuesday morning metro valley temps will again be in the 30s, so some spots could see snow. All dry Tuesday pm and Wednesday.  Wednesday morning will see a hard freeze in many areas as east winds blow.  A warm front Wednesday night could lead to icy precipiation in the gorge and other spots where cold air could be trapped.  At this point, Portland looks to be all wet. But please keep an eye on the forecast through Thursday night.  A Friday front will bring rising snow levels and warmer air. 

MONDAY SNOW FORECAST AT ELEVATIONS:  

MT. HOOD 2,000' AND HIGHER:  6-8"

1,000 to 1,500 FEET:  3-6"  (This could be Sandy, Or. and other high metro hills)

500 FEET:  Likely a mix of rain and snow, but a dusting to 2" of snow is possible.  Best chance for snow coverage will be north of Vancouver. 

Lowest Elevations:  All rain or a wet mix in the air, ground temps above 32 degrees. 

Rod Hill

When is the Moon a Super Moon?

Originally, the term "Super Moon" was used by astronomers to describe a full Moon when it is within 90% of its closest approach to Earth, in any given orbit. The term has become popular and is now used to describe any full Moon that appears larger than usual.

Astronomers call this sort of close full moon a perigee full moon. The word perigee describes the moon’s closest point to Earth for a given month. On November 14th, the full moon will be at 5:52 a.m. PST followed by the perigee at 3:36 p.m. PST.  Full moons vary in size because of the elliptical (oval) shape of the Moon's orbit. Perigee, or the Moon's closest approach Moon to Earth is about 31,068 miles closer to Earth than the its apogee or farthest distance. The Moon's distance at perigee changes by 3% over a period of 18.6 years, but in general while at perigee, a full moon would appear about 14% bigger and 30% brighter than a corresponding full moon at apogee, but it's not really all that much more dramatic than a regular full moon. On November 14th the Moon will be full, and just 221,524 miles away, making it the closest approach to Earth in 2016. According to NASA, this full moon will be not only the closest and brightest supermoon of 2016 but also the largest since 1948. What's more, the full moon won't come this close to Earth again until November 25, 2034.

(The above is courtesy of Jim Todd - director of space science with OMSI)

On this final day of October 2016, much of the Willamette Valley is setting all-time records for total October rainfall and the number of days with measurable rainfall, meaning .01" or more in a calendar day.  Below are new total rainfall records, which will be added to through the midnight hour of October 31st:

RECORDS FOR TOTAL OCTOBER RAINFALL

SALEM:  11.19" & counting

MCMINNVILLE:  10.05"

VANCOUVER:  8.11"

HILLSBORO 8.50"

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Portland (PDX) has finished the month with 8.31 inches, second place all-time in terms of total precipitation.  The wettest October is 8.41" set back in 1994.  PDX has seen measurable rainfall 28 of 31 days this month, breaking the old record of 23 days back in October of 1950.  It is very possible that this October will go into the books as the wettest month of the up-coming rainy season that typically runs November through March!  Normal rainfall for October in Portland is 3.00 inches.  The surplus of better than 5.00" of rain is basically like getting an extra November or December thrown in over the last 30 days.

Meteorologist Rod Hill 

What was expected to be our typical wind event has likely peaked as of 3:30 this afternoon with the main surface front pushing through.  Gusty winds at times will continue into tonight.  Tens of thousands have lost power at times and multiple reports of downed trees are scattered across the valley.  Many areas report peak winds between 25-35 mph, but there were strong winds as predicted. 

Here are a few peak wind gusts: 

Portland (PDX) 53 MPH, Oregon Zoo 49, Salem 52, Hillsboro 53, Happy Valley 48, McMinnville 46, Ridgefield 45, Scappoose 41, Keizer 40 mph.  A report at 1,200 feet near Newberg of 61 mph. 

Coast wind reports:  Garibaldi 77 mph, Manzanita 64, Long Beach 62, Pacific City 61, Lincoln City 55, Yachats 63 mph.

Coast Range Winds:  80-102 mph along the highest peaks.

MT. Hood:  7,000 Feet 60 mph. 

-Rod Hill

Before I announce my projection for the winter of 2016-2017, here is a quick word as to where we are coming from.  Last winter was as expected, a strong El Nino pattern that produced a healthy snowpack on Mt. Hood, much above normal rainfall for the Willamette Valley in terms of the water year dating back to October 1st and ending Sept. 30th and above normal temperatures overall.  Below are a few headlines for the water year:  

1.  Mt. Hood Test Site Snow Ending April 30th:  90" depth, 41.7" of water storage for 67% of normal.

2.  Portland (PDX) Total Water Year Precipitation Oct. 1st - Sept. 30th: 47.02" / 10.99" above normal

3.  Portland Season Snowfall:  1.3"

4.  Highest Wind Gust (PDX)  SW G 55 mph, December 21, 2015

5.  Portland Temperature average:  2.5 degrees above normal mean temperatures.

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The strong El Nino of last winter weakened during the spring and Enso Neutral Conditions are in place.  NOAA projects a 55-60% of Neutral conditions holding through the winter of 2016-2017.  My forecast projection work is based on data sets showing Neutral condtions, dating back to 1950.  I further examined Neutral seasons following a strong El Nino winter.  My outlook is based on averages of the above mentioned data sets. 

Here is my Winter Forecast for the Portland Metro Valley & Vancouver:  

1. Temperatures likely to be near normal or above by no more than 2.0 degrees.

2.  Rainfall: While a dry season is possible, odds favor rain totals near 37.90" / 1.87" above normal.  November and December are likely to combine for a wet start to the rainy season. 

3.  Valley Snowfall:  At least 1 or 2 mini-snow events dumping 3-6" of total snowfall are likely.

Also, I see an elevated chance to see an 8-12" snow event.  The historical average for this winter's pattern is 6" of total season snowfall.  However, odds are equal of seeing a big snow event as to seeing less than 3.00" for the year.  The December snow of 2008 that dumped 19" and the winter of 2003-2004 that produced 12.6" are in the data set. 

4.  Windstorms:  Odds are heightened for valley windstorms with south wind gusts reaching 50 mph or higher. The majority of Willamette Valley windstorms happen in Neutral and El Nino years.  Most recently, Neutral years brought the windstorms of December 2014, when PDX had a 67 mph wind gust, the highest since 1981 and the storm of December 2006, which had a blow of 80 mph in Salem and 70 in downtown Portland, but 53 at PDX.

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Perhaps most important to many is the Mt. Hood Snow Outlook.  My snow records for Mt Hood only go back to 2000.  Of these years, I found 8 seasons in the data set matching this up-coming winter scenario and 6 of the years had solid snowpacks!  The projected snowpack for this up-coming winter is 72% of average, which would be slightly higher than last winter.  I do want to point out that the 2 bad seasons I looked at include the record low snowpack season of 2014-2015.  In otherwords, there is reason to be cautious with the snow projection, but the best bet calls for a solid year with Timberline seeing more than 500" of total snowfall and Meadows more than 400 inches - both would be considered near normal.  Also, odds favor a good start to the season with a decent snowpack build during the month of December.

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My Seasonal Foreast track record dates back to 2001 and has a 67% accuracy rate, including my 2016 summer prediction of 16 total 90 degrees at PDX. The airport hit 90 degrees, 14 times this past summer.  

Industry standards for seasonal prediction is considered to be less than 50% for precipitation and 55% for temperature outlooks. 

-Rod Hill

Portland's (PDX) hot weekend sets records both days for warm low temperatures and hot afternoons.  Below are the new records: 

Saturday:  Record high - low temperature of 63 degrees.  The afternoon high was 98 degrees. 

Sunday:  Record high - low temperature of 66 degrees.  The afternoon high was 100 degrees!

At PDX, June 5th becomes the 2nd earliest to reach 100 degrees.  May 28th, back in 1983 also warmed to the century mark.  Assuming the Rose City warms to 90 or hotter on Monday, June 6th, the total for the year and month will be 3 days.  At this point, I stand behind my summer outlook calling for 16 - 90 degree days this year.  Forecast models do not show any hot weather between June 7th and the 22nd.  It is possible that we will not see any additional 90 degree heat this month.  

Rod Hill