Active weather into next week.  Tonight's rain should be fairly gentle.  A vigerous low pressure area Wednesdy night and Thursday morning could briefly drop snow to the 1,500 feet level.  The strongest weather system I am tracking is scheduled for next Tuesday.  Early indications are high winds at the coast and up to 1.00" of rain for Portland and Salem.   Mt. Hood has 30" of snow at 5,000 feet and more to come this week, including 4-8" through the day Wednesday.  As you look at the 7-Day forecast, keep in mind the timing and locations of weather fronts is changing daily.  Our current pattern is too aggressive for the models to "grab" onto.

November 7, 2009 Lincoln City Tornado

NWS confirms EF-0 tornado

Winds 65-85 mph, 11 homes damaged, 3 cars damaged

No Injuries
 

A quick blow by a isolated thunderstorm dropped a brief tornado in Lincoln City near Roads End around 937 PM PST on November 7, 2009. The tornado's destruction path was a mere 150 yards long by 80 yards wide, but the tornado ended up doing considerable damage to this area.

As of early Sunday morning, Mt. Hood Meadows had a base depth of 28" of snow.  Timberline had 26" and Ski Bowl 16" and the snow was still coming down!  4 - 8" of new snow is in the Monday forecast for Mt. Hood.  Timberline has already opened and Mt. Hood Meadows hopes to open as early as Wednesday of this week!  The outlook through Nov. 24th calls for snow levels of 5,000' or lower on most days and several episodes of heavy snow.  It looks likely, (at least right now), that all resorts will have 30-40" of snow on the ground before Thanksgiving weekend!

...HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS UPGRADED THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY TO A HIGH SURF WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4
PM PST SATURDAY.

LARGE SWELL GENERATED BY A STORM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BUILD
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS TO THE COAST. A BUOY ABOUT 85 MILES NORTHWEST OF
TILLAMOOK IS ALREADY REPORTING POWERFUL 24 FOOT SEAS APPROACHING
THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...AND WILL LIKELY
BEGIN POUNDING THE COAST BY MIDDAY.

THE LARGEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN 25
TO 30 FOOT SWELL WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE COAST. THESE WAVES WILL
BE VERY ENERGETIC AS THEY MOVE INTO THE SURF ZONE...PUMMELING THE
COAST WITH LARGE BREAKERS AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE. HEAVY DEBRIS SUCH
AS LOGS WILL BE THROWN AROUND BY THE LARGE WAVES...MAKING THE SURF
ZONE ESPECIALLY HAZARDOUS.

HAZARDS FROM HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE WILL BE
ENHANCED DURING THE HIGH TIDES AROUND 3 TO 4 PM IN THE AFTERNOON
TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH TIDE DURING THESE TIME PERIODS WILL
CAUSE THE LARGE WAVES TO IMPACT HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE BEACHES
THAN AT OTHER TIMES OF THE DAY.

The National Weather Service has upgraded the southern Oregon coast to a High Wind Warning.  Possible south wind gusts between 60 & 80 mph from North Bend to Brookings, late Thursday morning into early evening. 

The north and central Oregon coast is under a High Wind Watch during the day Thursday into early evening.  Gusts may reach 60 mph along the beaches and headlands.  Heavy rains are likely up and down the coast. 

Here is the latest news on what to expect this winter.  The El Nino continues to strengthen out over the equatorial waters of the Pacific.  The waters have been slowly warming each month since April.  There are currently hot spots of 2-3 degrees celsius above the seasonal norm.  Confidence is growing that the Northwest will see a mild and some what quiet winter.  This does not mean, that individiual storm episodes will be absent. 

Our weather looks wet and active this Thursday night and into much of next week.  The middle of November looks fairly dry. 

Daylight Saving Time will end Sunday morning at 2:00 a.m.  Remember to set your clocks back one hour before going to bed Saturday night.  Standard Time will give us the following on Sunday November 1st:

Sunrise:  6:51 am  /  Sunset:  4:57 pm

My fingers are still crossed and Saturday evening still looks dry except for possible lingering mountain showers.  Looks like nice weather across Salem and Portland for Halloween evening!

As forecasted for days, heavy snow has arrived over the Cascade passes.  As of 10:00 pm Monday, close to 6" of snow has fallen over Government Camp.  Heavier amounts are being reported over the Washington Cascades.  Tuesday morning travelers should carry chains over the Cascades.  Snow showers are expected to be scattered Tuesday above 2,500 feet.  Be sure and check the mountain forecast section for more information.  Rain totals are close to 2" along the north Oregon coast and between .50" - .85" so far across the Portland metro area. 

I attended the A.M.S. meeting at OMSI last Saturday, which is a discussion about the up-coming winter.  El Nino is still strengthening in the Pacific waters, which gives the Northwest a winter forecast of below average rain and snow, along with mild temperatures.  If the El Nino becomes moderate in nature, the forecast confidence improves.  This winter's wildcard is the fact we are increasingly due for a powerful inland windstorm.  (The last big blow was 1995)  I do want to mention that global warming or climate change - which ever you prefer - is continuing to alter our weather.  Longer lasting blocking high pressure ridges can mean days of cold, dry east winds and increasing cut-off low pressure areas can bring longer lasting and more powerful storm centers.  It will be interesting to see in the coming decades if the above is impacted by El Nino's and La Nino's or not?  Only time will tell.

I also want to mention a meteor shower tomorrow morning, Wednesday the 21st before sunrise.  Skies will likely be cloudy, but just in case of surprise clearing, be on the look out for up to 60 meteors an hour!

 Here is the summer temperature report for the United States - courtesy of NOAA

Interesting to note that the warmest states in terms of departure from normal were Florida, Texas and Washington.  My parents live in Missouri and like I always tell them, "if you are cold, the Northwest is almost always warm."

To date PDX has recorded 23 days of 90 degrees or hotter.  The number 23 is tied with 1987 for the most in one year.