Rod's Weather Headlines

1115 AM     TORNADO          1 SSE BATTLE GROUND     45.77N 122.54W
 12/10/2015                   CLARK              WA   NWS STORM SURVEY
 
             NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM HAS CONFIRMED A TORNADO WITH WINDS 
             UP TO 104 MPH TOUCHED DOWN SOUTHWEST OF BATTLE GROUND 
             WASHINGTON AT ABOUT 1115 AM. THE TORNADO IS RATED AN 
             EF1...86 TO 110 MPH. THERE WERE AT LEAST 2 TOUCHDOWN 
             POINTS ALONG A 2 MILE PATH. NO INJURIES OR FATALITIES 
             WERE REPORTED. AROUND 36 HOMES AND 2 BUSINESSES SUSTAINED
             DAMAGE. SEVERAL ROOFS WERE UPLIFTED. DOZENS OF TREES WITH
             A DIAMETER OF 1 TO 3 FEET WERE UPROOTED AND BLOWN DOWN. 
             AROUND HALF A DOZEN 1 TO 2 FOOT DIAMETER TREES SNAPPED.

Report from the NWS office Portland
 
 

What began Sunday overnight, ended this morning, (Wednesday), with a cold front passage around 3:30 a.m.  Left behind are countless areas of flooding, mudslides, power outages and closures.  Here is the record list of rainfall at PDX:

1.  Monday Dec. 7th:  2.67" of rain.  The most all-time at PDX for a calendar day in December.

2.  Tuesday Dec. 8th:  1.66" of rain.  A record for the day.

3.  24-Hour Period of Rainfall:  3.22" - the most all-time for December.

4.  Total Event Rainfall:  4.75"  PDX

___________________________________

Total December rainfall to date is 7.50 inches.  The December average for the entire month is 5.49".  The all-time record for December at PDX is 13.35" back in 1996.  There is an old downtown location record of 20.14" dating back to 1882. 

With more heavy rain to come, it is likely that Portland will see more than 10.00" of total rainfall this month.  Portland has not see a month with 10.00" of rainfall since November of 2006 when 11.92" fell.  In other words, getting dumped on by 10.00" of rain in one month has not happened in 9 years!

Rod Hill

Hours of steady, heavy rain likely today, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  All total, the metro valley could see 5.00" of rain over the four days.  The coast will average 2-3.00" of rain per day or more, while the mountains will likely see over a foot of rainfall.  Snow levels will rise to 8,000' Monday afternoon.  All Cascade passes show wet conditions with clean pavement.

South winds will also blow today, Tuesday and Tuesday night.  The metro valley will see consistent winds of 15-35 mph with gusts to 45 mph.  The coast will see 40-50 mph gusts along the beach, while the headlands could see gusts top 65 mph.  High elevations of the mountains will also see 50-65 mph wind gusts through Tuesday night. 

 A Wednesday morning cold front will end the strong winds and drop the snow level below 4,000 feet. 

All total, alerts for wind and possible flooding will be common through the days of Wednesday and Thursday.  Mudslides will also be possible.  Please be alert for changing weather conditions, high winds and high water. 

Rod Hill

My updated forecast holds heavy rain well north of Portland.  The one heavy rain band on track for the metro will arrive late Saturday afternoon or evening.  Steady rainfall for 1-2 hours will drop .50" of rain or less.  

A threat of heavy rain continues Friday and Saturday for much of Washington, including Long Beach, the Willapa Hills and parts of Cowlitz county. A FLOOD WATCH is in effect for rivers running out the Willapa Hills through Saturday evening.  As of early Friday morning, 1-2
of rain as fallen in the region and additional amounts of 4-6" will be possible through the day Saturday.  Residents should be alert for rapidly rising river levels. 

Inches of rain over the Olympic Mountains could reach near 10" through the weekend. 

Rod Hill

PDX dips to 37 degrees this morning, the coldest fall temperature so far.  The normal low is 43 and the record low for Nov. 4th is 27 degrees back in 1957.  The average first fall freeze at the airport is November 8th, but out-lying areas often see frosty mornings begin around Halloween.  Current forecast models show no freezing threat for the metro valley through the mid-part of next week.  Here are a few low temperature reports from today:

Battle Ground 29 degrees

Sherwood  & Estacada 31 degrees

Oregon City & Hillsboro 32 degrees

Salem 34 degrees

Vancouver 35 degrees

McMinnville & Scappoose 33 degrees

Downtown Portland 38 degrees.

Saturday's six hours of heavy rainfall, dropping 1.97" at PDX, put Portland over the top for the month of October with total rainfall of 3.69 inches.  Normal for the month is 3.00 inches.  The wet finish to the month snaps a dry stretch of below normal precipitation for consectutive months that began back in April. (If you are wondering, the wettest Halloween on record was back in 1994 when 2.44" fell at PDX and downtown Portland got drenched with 2.68 inches of rain!)

October also made news for warm temperatures.  The monthly mean of 60.1 degrees, ties October 2014 for the warmest all-time!  The average high, average low and mean temperatures were all 5 degrees above normal!  All but three months this year; January, April and September have finished as top five warm months in either low temp, high temp or the mean.  September stands alone as the only month of 2015 to average below normal temperatures. 

Outlooks give November a chance of seeing normal rainfall, which would be 5.63 inches.  November is typically Portland's wettest month of the year!  Temperature outlooks call for warmer than normal days to continue. 

Rod Hill

FLOOD WATCH CANCELLED AT 5PM SATURDAY. 

Portland Metro seeing serious street flooding.  Up to 2" of rain could fall over the city through 7:00 pm this evening.  Lane closures and long delays have been reported on area highways. 

The National Weather Service has issued a FLOOD WATCH through Saturday evening for parts of southwest Washington, including Cowlitz county, the Willapa Hills and the Cascades including Mt. St Helens.  The Kelso, Longview metro area could see 3-4" of total rainfall, the Willapa Hills 3-6" and areas near Mt. St Helens 4-8" of total rainfall.  Landslides will be possible. 

Residents should be alert for rapidly rising streams and rivers as well as high water spots and ponding of water over roadways.  

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

Portland will see a mix of steady rain and dry breaks.  In general, rain will be heavier north of Portland and more broken with dry periods to the south near Salem and Eugene.  Rainy weather is likely through Sunday.  The heaviest rain will come Saturday afternoon as a cold front brings a heavy rain band.  All total through Sunday, PDX could see 1-2" of rainfall.  Snow levels will hold near and above 8,000 feet, lowering to near 5,000' Sunday evening and near 4,000' Monday! Timberline could see 3-6" of Sunday snow, while Gov. Camp might see snow cover by Monday morning. 

Rod Hill

An El Nino pattern that NOAA says could be the strongest on record will dominate the country and the Pacific Northwest this winter season.  Typically, El Ninos produce wet weather across the southern United States, including California, and deliver mild temperatures across parts of the north with varied precipitation results.  

NOAA's forecast update is now calling for warm Northwest temperatures, but an equal chance of wet & dry weather for our region.  In otherwords, NOAA is "backing off" the agencies earlier prediction of dry weather for Oregon and Washington!  I have said all along, that near normal rain and snow for our region is possible this winter.  

The past two strongest El Nino events of 1982-1983 & 1997-1998, both produced above normal rainfall for Portland.  The same two winters produced healthy snow seasons on Mt. Hood! 

1982-1983:  MT. HOOD MEADOWS TOTAL SNOWFALL 623"

1997-1998:  MT. HOOD MEADOWS TOTAL SNOWFALL 385"

Normal for Meadows is 429 inches.  Last winter brought 125 inches of snow.

To be clear, the "WILDCARD" of this up-coming winter is the snow level forecast.  There is reason to fear that a warm weather pattern overall could produce another winter of mostly rain at Government Camp instead of much needed snowfall.  We will have to wait and see. 

___________________________________________________________________

MY FORECAST FOR THIS WINTER:  I expect near normal rainfall for Portland with two possible snow events dropping up to 8" of total snow for the season.  1-4 high wind events of 50-65 mph south valley wind gusts will also be possible.  Temperature averages will likely be above normal.  

MT. HOOD:  Near normal precipiation, but the snow level is uncertain.  Snow levels between 6-7,000 feet would bring another bad snow season, but a snow level near 4,000 feet on average would bring needed snow to area resorts!

Keep in mind, the strong El Nino pattern has the potential to produce a handful of strong low pressure centers that could lead to strong storm events of snow, ice, rain or high winds. 

(The above predictions are based on the past strong El Nino events of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998.)

Rod Hill

A cold front packing rain and wind will roll across the Northwest Saturday and Saturday night, bringing a taste of cool wet days to come!  The coast will see strong southwest winds, gusting 40-50 mph and possibly higher.  High seas will be dangerous, building to 16 feet and calming to 10 feet swells or rollers Sunday.  The Portland-Salem metro will hear the wind blow to 25 mph as the cold front arrives during the early afternoon. 

Rainfall will bring a soaking to much of the region.  The coast could see an inch of Saturday rain, while Portland hopes to see .25-.50 inches.  Higher rain amounts will be near and north of the Rose City.  Salem and areas to the south will see lesser amounts. Current timing brings dry weather by daybreak Sunday.  Snow levels over Mt. Hood may dip to near 6,000 feet Saturday night. 

After Saturday's hopeful rain, our forecast looks mostly dry through Friday of next week.  

Rod Hill

Portland's water year, (October 1st-Sept. 30th), ends with a deficit of just over 4.00 inches.  All of the deficit has come since April and piled up the months of April, May and June which led in part to the horrible fire season.  The pattern over the last 12 months did hold to my prediction last fall of total precipitation being within 4" of a normal departure.  Here are the numbers:

PDX TOTAL RAINFALL:  31.96" / Normal is 36.03" /  Deficit:  -4.07"

DRIEST WATER YEAR ON RECORD:  2000-2001"  23.00"

WETTEST WATER YEAR ON RECORD:  1996-1997:  58.68"

This year's up-coming El Nino Winter has an historic track record of producing near normal or above rainfall for Portland and near normal snowfall on Mt. Hood.  However, it is possible that Cascade snow levels will be unusually high again this up-coming season, meaning we would see rain at 6,000 feet not snow - let's hope not!  

Rod Hill