Rod's Weather Headlines

Portland's coldest fall night breaks two records! The temperature at PDX last evening dropped to 27 degrees, breaking a record of 28 degrees for December 3rd.  The Weather Service confirms the coldest temp at the airport this morning was 22 degrees, breaking the record of 23, set back in 1972.  Below are a few unofficial low temperatures from this morning: 

Portland (PDX):  22 degrees Record Low

Hillsboro:  21

Battle Ground:  21

Sherwood:  19

Salem:  21

McMinnville:  26

Oregon City:  22

Canby:  26

Timberline Lodge:  4

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The all-time December record low for the airport is 6 degrees back in 1964.  The coldest PDX temperature on record is -3 below zero back in February of 1950.  More cold nights are in the forecast, so bundle up!

December begins with heavy rain!  24-hour rainfall ended early Monday are listed below:

Portland:  .76"

Salem:  .80"

Kelso 1.19"

Aurora:  1.44"

Hood River:  2.47"

Astoria:  1.08"

Tillamook: 1.23"

Newport:  1.03"

Scappoose:  .71"

Vancouver:  .67"

Hillsboro:  .61"

McMinnville:  .87"

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Sunday's rain was needed after a dry November that saw only 3.05" of rain at PDX, which was -2.58" below normal for the month. 

The first low snow levels of the season are set to arrive before the Thanksgiving holiday weekend comes to an end.  Motorists should realize conditions will be dry to start holiday travels, but turn stormy for the drive home. A strong cold front tracking to arrive Sunday morning will drop snow levels below Cascade passes during the afternoon. Snow levels will be near 1,000' Monday!  Cascade travel will likely be impacted with heavy accumulating snow in the forecast.  Motorists driving over the mountains should prepare for all out winter conditions before the weekend comes to an end. The low snow level may also produce snow and ice over the high Coast Range passes Sunday night and Monday. 

Here are the elevations for the most traveled highways in our local region, starting with the Cascades:

1.  Government Camp, US Highway 26:  4,026 feet

2.  Santiam Pass, Hwy 20:  4,817 feet

3.  Willamette Pass, Hwy 58:  5,128 feet

4.  Siskiyou Pass, I-5 south:  4,310 feet

5.  Snoqualmie Pass, I-90:  3,022 feet

Coast Range Passes:

1.  Highway 26:  1,600 feet

2.  Murphy Hill, Hwy 18:  760 feet

3.  Dudlee Hill, Hwy 20:  860 feet

Keep in mind, if current forecast temperatures for the Cascades are correct, Sunday highs in the 20s at Government Camp would likely lead to snow packed roadways with ODOT putting down rock and plowing as needed.  Traction tires and or chains should be carried.

Please keep updated and have a safe holiday weekend.

Comet ISON has been billed as the "comet of the century."   Recent observations indicate the comet is increasing brightness and should be a naked eye object in the coming days.  As of November 19th, the comet was less than 43 million miles from the Sun and will be within Mercury's obit on November 23rd.  

On November 28th, ISON will make its closest pass to the Sun, coming within 680,000 miles of our solar system's brightest object.  At that time, the comet will either break apart because of the Sun's intense energy or survive the journey and continue around the Sun.

Predicting the brightness of a comet is difficult, but scientist believe ISON will reach peak brightness near November 28th.  Still, several factors may make viewing difficult.  OMSI will host a Comet viewing party Saturday, November 23rd at Milo McIver State Park in Estacada from 5:00 a.m. to 7:00 a.m.  Telescopes will be set up and the public is invited.

Sunday was day 8 and counting of the amazing dry streak.  What's more is that forecast models continue to show possible dry weather through the end of the month!  If so, the dry streak could reach 20 days, lasting through November 1st. 

So far, PDX has seen measurable rainfall 6 days this month.  If dry weather holds, October would finish with 25 dry days.  The all-time PDX record is 27 October days with no rainfall back in 1987.  Forecast models show rain showers returning either the last few days of October or the first few days of the new month.  I do see hints of a stretch of 5 days of hefty rain totals developing in the first 10 days of November. 

Outlooks from the National Weather Service show little confidence for the November forecast.  My forecast works shows a likely chance of above normal rainfall developing.  Of course November is the traditional kick-off of the rainy season.

A penumbral lunar eclipse will take place this evening.  Our skies will be clear but the timing of the sky show will take place mostly before the moon rises here on the west coast.  The eclipse will begin at 2:51 pm local time with peak coverage of the moon by the earth's shadow at 4:50 and the conclusion of the moon leaving the shadow cast by our planet at 6:47 pm PDT. 

The bad news for Portland is that the moon will not rise in the east until 6:11 pm, meaning the eclipse will be nearly over by the time the moon starts to rise.  None the less, look to the east to see a partial shadow cast over the moon for about 30 minutes as our favorite rock rises in the sky. 

Neutral enso conditions are projected for the 2nd year in a row.  The "neutral" state refers to near normal equatorial Pacific water temperatures.  My winter forecast projection is for the months of November, December, January, February and March.  The research I have compiled focuses on neutral seasons with high rain totals during the combined months of September and October.  Years I am using for comparison begin with the fall months of:  1979, 1981, 1986, 1996 and 2005. 

Here is my Portland winter forecast:

1.  Precipitation:  Wetter than normal by 5.90 inches, which would be an extra month of rain.

2.  Valley Snowfall: Odds favor no big events with a season total of 1-3 inches.  The data set does include a 20% chance of one 8 inch snow event.  Last winter only saw a trace of snowfall.

3.  Temperatures:  An overall temperature average of 1/2 degree above normal.  Month to month data:  November near normal; December & January above normal;  a cool February and a normal March.

4.   Extreme Weather Events:  A high chance of 1-3 valley wind events with south peak gusts 50-70 mph.  The  comparison winter of 2005-2006 had two valley wind events with 50 mph gusts.  The fall of 1981 had a mini - Columbus Day storm with 71 mph winds in Salem and Portland.

5.   Cascade snowfall:  Projecting a good year with 525 inches of snow or more at Timberline Lodge.  Normal for the resort is a seasonal total of 400-500 inches.  Last year saw 545 inches fall.  Mt.  Hood has not seen a low snow total since 2004-2005.  The last 8 winter seasons have averaged 606 inches at the lodge.

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Keep in mind, seasonal forecasting has a skill roughly 20% better than pure chance.  Here is my report card from last winter's forecast: 

1.  I projected high confidence of no significant valley snow.  (Correct)

2.  Below normal rainfall for the water year:  (Wrong)  My projected total was 9.00 inches too low.

3.  Mt. Hood snowfall:  I projected up to 500 inches of at Timberline.  (Correct)  The total at the lodge was 545 inches, which is slightly higher than my projection, but still pretty close.

4.  I said we were not due for and not expecting any extreme weather events.  (Correct)

If my winter forecast is correct, the metro valley will see a wet winter with a few decent wind events  and most likely a few brief snowfalls, although one major snow event looks possible. 

Happy fall and winter season, 

Rod Hill

Our late September storm was as fierce as advertised.  Weekend rain totals at PDX reached 2.69 inches, setting daily rainfall records for both Saturday and Sunday.  As of midnight Sunday night, the airport had 5.06 inches of September rain, which breaks the old PDX all-time record of 4.30 inches, set back in 1986.  The following is a list of new all-time Sept. rainfall records.  The totals are accurate as of Sunday evening, courtesy of the National Weather Service: 

Astoria Sept. 2013:  10.10 inches (old record 8.66 - 1906)

Hillsboro Sept. 2013:  5.75 inches (old record 3.68 - 1945)

Portland Downtown, KGW Sept. 2013:  6.21 inches (old record 5.52 - 1927

Salem Sept.  2013:  5.81 inches (old record 5.52 - 1927)

Vancouver Sept.  2013:  4.66 inches (likely to break the record of 4.88 back in 1911)

McMinnville Sept.  2013:  5.00 inches (current record is 7.58 back 1996)

The first of two weekend storm fronts brings heavy rains and damaging wind.  As of 7:30 Saturday evening, PDX reports .96 inches of rain, bringing the monthly total to 3.33 inches.  The all-time September PDX rainfall record is 4.30 inches back in 1986.  The airport reported peak south sustained winds of 33 mph and a peak gust of 43 mph. 

Highest rain totals from the metro valley include:

Tigard:  2.14 inches

Hillsboro: 1.70

Beaverton: 1.36

McMinnville: 1.36

Salem:  .99 (daily record)

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Other rain totals:

Astoria  3.52 inches (record for the date)

Mt. Hebo  5.39 inches (Coast Range)

Timberline Lodge 4.56 inches

Longview  1.84 inches

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Peak Wind Gusts:

Lincoln City:  75 mph (12:30 pm)

Newport:  65 mph

Astoria:  54 mph

Timberline Lodge:  47 mph

Mt. Hood 7,000 Feet:  79 mph

Salem:  46 mph

I-5 & Division:  46 mph

Fremont Bridge 34 mph

Most of the Portland metro reported peak gusts between 30-45 mph.

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A 2nd storm front will arrive Sunday afternoon.  Heavy rain and gusty winds will again be likely.  Please keep updated.  A 2nd round of weather will again bring potential property damage, high water spots and power outages. 

   Below is a statement from the National Weather Service.  Weekend rains in Portland, will likely break records.  

   Expected rainfall of more than 2.00" will break the all-time PDX September rain record which is 4.30" back in 1986. 

.SYNOPSIS...AUTUMN IS WASTING NO TIME GETTING STARTED IN THE PACIFIC 
  NORTHWEST. A VERY VERY WET PATTERN IS BEGINNING...WITH THE FIRST 
  SYSTEM IN A SERIES SPREADING IN TODAY WITH DECENT RAINS. THE NEXT 
  STRONGER AND WETTER FRONT IS FORECAST TO RAMP UP THE RAIN AND COASTAL 
  WIND ON SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT EVEN 
  POSSIBLY STRONGER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN AND 
  WIND TO THE FORECAST AREA LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR 
  RECORD RAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER 
  SHOULD THEN LINGER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. 
  &&  
   
  .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE GETTING MORE 
  CONSISTENT WITH THE DETAILS OF OUR HEAVY RAIN EPISODE THROUGH THIS 
  WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE TROPICAL 
  MOISTURE WITH THEM...SOME FROM FORMER WESTERN TYPHOON PABUK. THESE 
  SERIES OF STORMS WILL PRODUCE RECORD RAINFALLS IN OUR AREA...AS WELL 
  AS STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND...AND HIGH SEAS NEAR 
  THE COAST. 
   
  THE FIRST SYSTEM WAS ALREADY SPREADING ONSHORE THIS MORNING. THE 
  RAIN WILL REACH THE PORTLAND AREA LATER THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD 
  SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS 1.5 PWS FEEDING IT...AND 
  SHOULD PRODUCE MODERATE RAINS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE EVENING. 
   
  THE NEXT STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM AS MOISTURE FROM PABUK IN IT. THE 
  RAINS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE 
  SYSTEM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEFT OVER FROM THE SYSTEM TODAY. 
  HEAVY RAIN WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS MOST OF 
  THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BOTH SHOW THE ASSOCIATED 
  COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON...AND MOVING 
  ONSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN...WITH STRONG 
  WINDS AT THE COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BRING 
  AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THE WINDS COULD CAUSE TREE 
  DAMAGE AND POWER DISRUPTIONS ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST AND OVER THE 
  COAST RANGE BUT POSSIBLY IN THE VALLEYS AS WELL. 
   
  IF THE MODELS ARE TO BE BELIEVED...THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF REPRIEVE OR 
  DECREASE IN THE RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BUT NOW 
  THE MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON ANOTHER STRONG LOW APPROACHING THE COAST 
  SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SWINGING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. 
  THIS WILL BRING MORE VERY HEAVY RAIN TO OUR AREA...AS WELL AS 
  POSSIBLY STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST AS WELL AS INLAND. THE WINDS WITH 
  THIS SYSTEM MAY BE STRONGER THAN THE SATURDAY STORM...WITH GUSTS NEAR 
  THE COAST UP NEAR 80 MPH POSSIBLE IF THE CURRENT MODELS ARE CORRECT. 
   
  PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY STILL LOOK TO BE 7 TO 10 INCHES 
  IN THE CASCADES AND THE COAST RANGE...WITH 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES OR MORE 
  IN THE VALLEYS. THIS IS A VERY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA... 
  VERY UNUSUAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER AND MORE LIKE A LATE OCTOBER OR 
  NOVEMBER OR LATER EVENT. TOLLESON 
   
  .LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... 
  THE EXTENDED MODELS CURRENTLY INDICATE THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE 
  WINDING DOWN SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT PERIODIC SHOWERS...SOMETIMES 
  HEAVY...TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE GULF OF 
  ALASKA LOW PUSHES TOWARD THE PAC NW. THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL 
  SHORTWAVES THAT WILL DRIVE THE MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS IS SOMEWHAT 
  UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN THE SHOWERY PATTERN IS HIGH. THERE 
  IS SOME INDICATION THAT A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK 
  FROM THE RAIN SOMETIME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT THE 
  DETAILS AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE ARE VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR AT 
  THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEG BELOW 
  NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. PYLE 
  && 
   
  .AVIATION...INLAND...VFR EARLY WITH LOCAL IFR CONFINED TO KHIO. RAIN 
  BEGINNING EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 16Z TO 17Z IN THE NORTH 
  INTERIOR...18Z TO 19Z SOUTH. CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS INCREASE LATER IN 
  THE AFTERNOON...AND BECOME LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  
  AT THE COAST...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ON THE NORTH COAST WILL 
  SPREAD DOWN THE COAST LATER THIS MORNING AS A FRONT SPREADS RAIN INTO 
  THE AREA. 
   
  KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IN LIGHT 
  RAIN. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A FRONT STALLS 
  AND RAIN CONTINUES AT TIMES. 
  && 
   
  .MARINE...WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS (20 TO 25 
  KT) THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A SET OF PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER 
  PACIFIC FRONTS. EXPECT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LATER THIS AFTERNOON 
  AND EVENING BELOW 20 KT IN MANY SPOTS...BUT WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT 
  ADVISORY GOING DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN WINDS RAMP BACK UP.  
   
  WINDS INCREASE TO GALES (35 KT TO 45 KT) SAT...LASTING INTO THE 
  EVENING. LATEST MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER FOR SAT SYSTEM SO HAVE 
  BUMPED UP TIMING A LITTLE...AND MAY NEED TO BUMP IT UP AGAIN...BUT 
  WILL MAKE THIS DECISION THIS AFTERNOON WHEN AN UPGRADE TO WARNING IS 
  LIKELY. SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT CLOSE TO SHORE POSSIBLE SAT 
  AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES ASHORE...ESPECIALLY AS 
  THE FRONT NEARS...AS THERE MAY BE A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO THE FRONT 
  THAT CAN CREATE LOCALIZED STRONGER GUSTS. A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN 00Z 
  FRI GFS/ECMWF MODELS IS ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM FOR SUN AFTERNOON. 
  EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE DEPICTING IT MUCH WEAKER. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE 
  AS STRONG OR STRONGER THAN SAT SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND 
  MODELS HAVE SHOWN TOWARD THE STRONGER SOLUTION. THIS COULD BE A STORM 
  BUT LOOKS TO AT LEAST BE A GALE. EXPECT TO HAVE SOMETHING OUT FOR 
  THIS SYSTEM BY MID AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST. 
   
  SEAS REMAIN BELOW 10 FT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN BUILD INTO THE MID 
  TEENS SAT. LONGER PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES SAT NIGHT AND WILL 
  LIKELY EXCEED 20 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON. WITH PERIODS IN THE MID TEENS 
  BEACHES USUALLY EXPERIENCE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS WITH SEAS OF THIS 
  MAGNITUDE. /KMD