Rod's Weather Headlines

Arctic are will slowly arrive Tuesday and bring gusty east winds with cold air through Saturday & possibly Sunday.  Coldest low temperatures will be near 10 degrees in out-lying areas Thursday and Friday mornings.  East winds gusting to 50 mph near the gorge and 12-30 throughout the valley will produce bitterly cold wind chills in the teens each afternoon.  Stay updated to the possibility of a metro snow storm this coming Saturday.  The forecast may change, but current forecast models show a large area of Pacific moisture arriving Saturday with inland temperatures likely below freezing.  This has the potential to be a 6" or higher Portland metro snow event with the snow level near sea level.  Salem may see south winds warm the temperature and bring rain, while gorge winds keep Portland in the snow zone. 

Sunday's warming is uncertain.  Best case will see warming temps and a rain transition during the day.  However, it is possible that areas near the gorge will see below freezing temperatures continue Sunday with an icy mix.  All areas will see rain by Tuesday at the latest with temperatures in the 40s. 

Arctic air is set to begin arriving Monday, across the Rockies and upper Midwest.  Forecast models show the coldest air since early December spilling into western Washington and Oregon.  The Celsius temperature contour map above shows air temperatures at 5,000 feet next Tuesday.  If correct, the map indicates surface high temperatures in the 20s over the Columbia Basin and highs only in the single digits over parts of Montana. 

The predicted cold snap will likely not be as cold as Portland experienced last December 4th - 10th.  The seven day stretch produced a low temperature of 12 degrees at PDX and highs in the upper 20s.  Right now, next week is likely to see high temperatures reach 40 degrees with lows as cold as 20, depending on expected gusty east winds.

To date, our winter season has produced 36 mornings with low temperatures reaching freezing.  Average through the end of January is 29 days.  The likely cold start to February may be enough to hold the temperature average below normal for the month, but it is too early to tell.  So far, November's mean temperature was one degree below normal and December's mean temp was 4 degrees below normal, which ties for the 5th coldest at PDX. 

Seasonal outlooks through the month of April offer little clue as to what our weather will be.  It goes without saying that we need a wet February and spring.  The water year deficit, going back to October 1st is more then 10.00 inches or roughly two months behind schedule.

The weekend storm brings the first heavy moisture to our area since December 1st.  Ski resorts are celebrating a solid base of snow on Mt. Hood after more than two feet of fresh powder fell Saturday and Sunday.  Timberline Lodge reports a base of 63 inches and Meadows has 54 inches on the ground, while Skibowl has more than a foot covering its front slope.  The Mt. Hood snow pack has risen from 44 percent of normal to 56 percent thanks to the weekend storm.

Here in the valley, a wet Saturday and Sunday morning dropped nearly an inch of total rain.  While the rain storm has caught January up to date, a dry water year remains in place with a deficit of more than 8.00 inches at PDX. 

Forecast models show a quick return to a dry weather pattern.  At present, no big storms are showing up through the end of January, meaning below normal precipitation is expected. 

Only one day, December 1st, has seen more than .50 inches of rain since a record setting storm dumped more than 3.00 inches at PDX the last three days of September.   A strong cold front set to arrive before the daylight hours of Saturday shows promise of bringing needed heavy rainfall of an inch or more over a two day period.  The same storm will likely bring feet of snow to Mt. Hood resorts this coming weekend.

Precipitation maps from the National Weather Service River Forecast center show 2-4" of potential rain Friday and Friday night over the Coast Range, which could bring flooding to small streams.  The same weather system will bring inches of precipitation Saturday and Sunday morning to the Cascades.  If snow levels hold near and below 5,000 feet, ski slopes will see 2-3 feet of snow on top of the 12 inches that fell Wednesday and Thursday.  

Both the valley and Mt. Hood have seen only 40% of expected precipitation so far this water year.  A series of good storms like the one arriving this weekend will be needed to catch up.  Total snowfall at Timberline Lodge is down roughly 200 inches when compared to one year ago.

Be sure and keep updated with the forecast this weekend.  If you are heading to the beach, rough seas could reach 35 feet high Saturday night, following a day of high winds. 

The numbers for December,  the calendar year of 2013 and the Mt. Hood snow pack are no where close to normal and leave our region on the dry end of the stick.  Portland's 2013 precipitation was 26.72 inches, more than 9 inches below normal and the 5th driest year at PDX since records began back in 1941.  The number is a big departure from the more than 50 inches of moisture that fell in 2012.  Our recent dry weather is a reminder that a dry year eventually follows a real soaker.  In other words a period of heavy rain often is trailed by a period of dry days as the atmosphere naturally evens out the totals over time.

December made the record books in two categories.  With a temperature average of 4 degrees below normal, the month is the 5th coldest on record at PDX.  The rain total of less than 2.00 inches is the 2nd driest on record. 

Up on Mt. Hood the news is just as dry.  As of December 31st, the snow pack is just over 40% of normal with a snow depth of only two feet that would melt into 10 inches of water stored.  While it is true that the mountain has until May 1st to catch up, recent years have never finished the snow year more that 75% of normal with such a dry start.  To date, this is the first low snow year on Mt. Hood since the winter of 2004-2005 when the snow pack finished at 44% of normal. 

The possible silver lining in the current dry report is that our weather seems to be showing a transition to heavier spring precipitation over the months of March and April.  A wet spring will be needed to "right" the ship.  Current forecast outlooks show below normal valley rainfall through the first two weeks of January and little confidence points toward a wet finish to winter, but as always we will have to wait and see.

The dry start to our water year is most noticeable on Mt. Hood where Mt. Hood Meadows and Timberline have barely enough snow to operate the lifts.  The two resorts report 20-30 inches of mostly old, crunchy snow on the ground.  Mt. Hood Skibowl, which sits at a lower elevation has less than a foot of snow.  Skibowl has made some 30" of snow on the lower mountain and is operating rope tows for tubing and beginner ski and boarding terrain.  This will be the first Christmas since 2004 that the resorts main chair lifts will not be open due to lack of snow.  It is interesting to note that the snow year of 2004 - 2005  never saw more then 2 feet of snow on the slopes at Skibowl.  Timberline and Meadows that winter had snow bases mostly between 30 - 45 inches.  The snow pack on Mt. Hood finished the year 44% of normal. 

Here in the valley, rainfall totals at PDX are running 44% of normal since the start of the water year, back on October 1st.  The total as of midnight Dec. 23rd, was 5.53 inches, more than 7 inches below the normal pace to date. 

Forecast models shows little precipitation through the first 10 days of January.  Outlooks for the new month show little confidence to project wet or dry.  I do see some good news, in that a large Arctic outbreak next month is not expected to dominate the eastern U.S. like we saw earlier this December.  A lack of a large cold air trough across the east may open the doors for the Pacific Northwest to return to a more active westerly flow, which would get precipitation totals closer to normal. 

We still have plenty of time to catch up with valley rainfall and mountain snow.  Remember the last few years have shown an overall trend for very wet spring months, March - May.   Our current water year ends Sept. 30th, 2014.

Portland (PDX) has received just 5.27 inches of total precipitation since the start of the water year, back on October 1st.  The total is an unforeseen 5.98 inches below normal or only 47 percent of the 11.25 inches that would be considered average. 

Here at the monthly totals for Portland for the current water year.  (October 1st - Sept. 30th)

October:  1.15 inches of rain / -1.85 inches below normal

November:  3.05 inches / -2.58 inches below normal

December:  1.07" so far / -1.55 inches below normal

Current forecast charts show precipitation picking up a bit the final two weeks of December, but not enough to erase the deficit in place.  Snowfall on Mt. Hood has also been surprisingly scarce over the past 2 1/2 months.  Total snow that has fallen to date at Timberline Lodge is only 89 inches, which is far below the 170 inch total posted last season through mid-December.  Currently, Mt. Hood resorts report roughly 2 feet of snow on the ground.

As we move forward, realize we have plenty of time to catch up and perhaps even finish with a wet season.  Remember that recent years have shown a shift of heavy rainfall and mountain snow into the spring months of March and April. 

Another cold morning with temperatures across much of the Portland - Salem metro area in the low to mid 20s.  Increasing cloud cover and cold east winds blowing out of the gorge will make it difficult for spotty areas to warm above freezing as rain arrives around the noon hour.   Be sure and check the temperature and radar later this morning as a rain band approaches.

Areas below 32 degrees when the moisture arrives will see freezing rain.  By definition, freezing rain is precipitation that falls as liquid rain all the way to the surface and then freezes into ice upon impact with the ground, tree branches or what ever frozen surface the raindrop lands.  Most people agree that freezing rain is a drivers worst nightmare as land areas quickly turn into a sheet of ice. 

Areas most likely to see freezing rain this afternoon with temperatures below 32 degrees are the Columbia river Gorge and the Willamette Valley between Albany and Salem.  7:00 a.m. temperatures this morning were 20 degrees at Hood River, 18 degrees in Corvallis and 17 degrees in Eugene.  Other areas to watch are northern Clark County, including Ridgefield where temperatures struggled to warm Wednesday afternoon and spotty areas near Forest Grove and McMinnville.

The approaching cold front will weaken as it pushes inland today and encounters the remnants of the much colder Arctic air mass.  The weakening of the frontal boundary may lead to some areas staying below freezing with icy conditions longer than expected. 

Be sure and keep updated today until your temperature warms above freezing.

Light snow showers Monday overnight - early Tuesday morning, developed a fresh dusting of snow for much of the Portland metro area. Very little total precipitation is expected Tuesday - Thursday morning, however any showers that form could bring icy travel problems. Most hours through the period will be dry until a Thursday afternoon cold front arrives, bringing likely rain and ending the cold Arctic blast.

If showers develop, temperature profiles would produce the following precipitation:

Tuesday afternoon & evening:  Light rain or sleet showers 

Wednesday morning:  Light freezing rain (odds favor dry weather)

Wednesday afternoon:  Rain showers, above freezing temps (odds favor dry weather)

Thursday morning:  Freezing rain (again, dry weather may hold)

Thursday afternoon:  Rain likely, up to .25" with highs near 40 degrees.

The forecast for light snow in Portland, likely snow at the coast and heavier amounts south of Salem turns out to be correct.  The big surprise to this forecaster are the high amounts in the Coast Range near Corvallis.  Below are the latest snow totals from the National Weather Service:

Philomath, Or. (near Corvallis in the Coast Range):  9.0 inches

Corvallis, OSU campus:  9.0 inches

Albany:  8.0 inches

Eugene:  3.0 inches

Astoria:  2.5 inches

Newport:  3.0 inches

Vernonia:  1.75 inches

Portland:  Dusting

Ridgefield, Wa:  1.0 inch

Longview:  1.0 inch

Vancouver:  Dusting

Salem:  1.0 inch

There are reports of 2-4 inches in the north Coast Range and similar amounts off of highway 30 near Scappoose. (The photo shows a snow covered beach this morning.)  Very cold air through this weekend will keep roadways icy and dangerous.  Many areas may not get above freezing until Monday afternoon.