Rod's Weather Headlines

The low pressure center I have been tracking moved more slowly than I anticipated and also pushed a little farther inland.  The result was severe afternoon thunderstorms at the central coast and high damaging south winds here in the valley.  South wind gusts Monday afternoon and early evening reached 49 mph at Aurora, 54 in Salem, 53 in Forest Grove, 46 in Kalama and close to 50 mph at PDX.  The valley metro areas had no lightning detected during the time of the strong winds.  Several reports of down trees and power outages were scattered.  Monday was a reminder to be on alert when a forecaster talks about tracking a low pressure center close to shore.  Monday's forecast did call for possible thunderstorms.  The magnitude of the storms and development of strong gusty south winds was not expected by this forecaster.  We all know now, it takes only a slight change in position and movement for a a low center to produce high valley winds and severe thunderstorms.  A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm with either 3/4" hail and or wind gust of 58 mph or higher.  The criteria does not include lightning, although strikes are typically associated with said thunderstorms.  Next strong cold front is on tap for early Thursday.  

The last seven days have seen more than 40" of snow on Mt. Hood above 5,000 feet, making the period the snowiest seven day stretch of the entire winter season!  Skibowl reported a Saturday morning base of 63" of snow.  A couple of weeks back, the resort had not reached more than 30" most of the winter! The Mt. Hood test site at 5,300' has seen the snowpack climb to more than 70% of normal for the season to date with 43" of melted water being stored on the mountain.  An average season through April 30 collects 65" of water from melted snow.   

On a separate issue, the forecast calls for active weather with snow levels below Cascade passes most days into the middle of April.  The 14th of the month is the current target date to transition into a calmer and warmer pattern.  The 31st of March marked the average last freeze of the spring season for PDX.  Areas such as Salem, Hillsboro and Battle Ground usually see freezing temperatures through the first of May.  

Easter weekend begins with a wet and stormy Friday.  The cold front will arrive Friday morning.  The coast will likely see high winds Thursday overnight and Friday morning, peak wind gusts may reach 65 mph.  The valley will see possible spotty wind gusts Friday morning near 50 mph.  Any 50 mph wind gusts will likely produce spotty power outages and a few down trees.  Rain Friday morning will be heavy.  The coast will see over 1.25" of rain and the valley near .80" with additional rain amounts into the day Saturday.  The snow level is expected to rise above 4,000 feet Friday morning and lower back to 2,000 feet by late afternoon  and down between 1,000 - 1,500 feet Saturday!  Winter storm conditions over the Cascades will be likely all day Friday above 5,000 feet.  The heaviest snow over Government camp will fall Friday evening and night.  Total snow amounts Friday and Saturday will reach 1-2 feet or more.  

Saturday will see likely rain at times in the valley and coast and snow showers over the Cascades.  The storm will clear by Easter Sunday.  A low pressure center will track offshore and drop to our south during the day Sunday.  I still feel Sunday could go either way - meaning, likely rain at times, or mostly dry weather, with the rain remaining west and south of our area.  Current computer models give Portland and Salem .05" or rain Easter Sunday.  Sunrise Easter Sunday in Portland:  6:45 a.m.  

UPDATED SUNDAY 8:30 p.m.  A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT AND JET STREAM CORE TO ENTER OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.  All computer models are showing a strong jet core centering into the Northwest.  High winds at the coast are looking likely early Monday.  Peak wind gust near the headlands may reach between 70-80 mph. The high wind threat at the coast will end Monday morning once the front crosses the beach.  At the latest, front crossing will be 9:00 a.m.      Valley locations will see possible morning wind gusts reach between 40-50 mph.  The chance of 50 mph gust is slight but possible.   Rain totals into Tuesday morning could exceed three inches at the beach and well over an inch across Salem and Portland.  I do expect Salem and Portland to see steady rain all day Monday.  The Cascades will likely see two feet and maybe three feet of new snow through Tuesday morning.  The snow level will lower below Cascade passes around noon Monday.  Blowing snow might be an issue with possible wind gusts reaching 40 mph and higher.  If you have travel plans or need to be outside Monday through Tuesday morning, please keep updated.  This should be a good one!

All wind warnings have been canceled for the coast as of 8:00 a.m. Monday morning.  The cold front will clear the Portland and Salem metro areas around mid-morning.  Once the front passes, the heaviest rain rates will end and the strongest winds will also wind down.  The front will hit the Cascades around noon.  Winter storm conditons will continue through the day across the Cascades.  The afternoon snow level will be near 3,500 feet.  Earlier this morning, exposed beach fronts saw peak wind gusts reach into the 80s!  Astoria saw a 66 mph wind gust.  Both the Salem and Portland metro areas did experience spotty wind gusts near 50 mph.  There were reports of trees down and spotty power outages.   Monday afternoon will continue to see likely rain and breezy winds from the coast to the Cascades.  Central and eastern areas will see lowering snow levels late Monday, with snow in many locations Monday night. 

Thursday through Saturday saw Mt. Hood resorts, including Skibowl receive an average of 20" of snow!  The dumping pushes the base at Skibowl over 40" for what I believe to be the first time this winter season.  The water content of the snow is believed to be 2 inches.  Great news, but the snowpack is still 20" of water equivalency below normal for the season.  The valley from Salem to Portland picked up just over an inch on average.  Even with the rain totals in the bucket, March is likely to drop to below 50% of normal by the end of this upcoming week.  The water year total dating back to Oct. 1st for PDX is 20.74".  The figure is roughly 4.30" below normal to date.  The spring months are still expected to be normal to below in total precipitation with temperatures on the warm side.  

Seems like weeks ago that I began talking about cold air gathering in the gulf of Alaska.  The big deal was that such an occurrence has been rare this winter.  Finally computer models agree that colder air will move inland behind a Sunday cold front.  I am talking about snow levels dropping to 2,000 feet and valley temperatures struggling to reach 50 degrees for afternoon highs.  Cascade snows will be heavy at times Sunday night and Wednesday through Friday.  If we could rack up a few feet of snow, March will be off to a great start!

Below are my thoughts enclosed in an email I sent to a viewer that wanted my opinion on the subject.

Here are my brief thoughts on global warming:


1.   Is the planet in a warm cycle - yes

     Just because we are currently off of the peaks of a few years back, does not mean the warm cycle is over.  Overall, the global temperatures remain consistently above climate normal's.  Ice loss is still a concern.

 2.    Do we know if humans played a role in our recent temperature spike??  No we do not and any speculation is just that - speculation.


3.     Has climate always changed and moved into varying cycles?  Yes!  In fact the next ice age is some 6,000 or 16,000 years away.  (I forget which?)



4.     Do scientist overwhelming believe that warming temperatures lead to stronger storms and climate change from fresh water glacial melt into the world's oceans?  Yes!



Fresh water runoff into the oceans, alters the salinity and therefore the flow of currents which leads to a change of the air flows aloft in the atmosphere.


5.     Do we know if CO2 emissions are leading to warming?  No.



Do we know if C02 in the atmosphere is currently well above expected levels??  Yes



Do we know if humans are emitting tons of C02 into the atmosphere?  Yes we are.



6.    Does it make sense to be a good custodian of our planet and atmosphere??  Yes

Based on the above, why wouldn't we want to limit pollution into the atmosphere??  I would support going green - Yes

 Just like I support not throwing a soda can out of my car window. 

In conclusion, if we are undergoing climate change, what a spectacular time to live and witness.  Of course, our latest warm spike could just be a 30 year natural cycle that will soon change.   Does anyone know ??   No   /  Lets say we in the beginning of long term climate change, could the trend be natural? Of course.

At the end of the day, we are just stupid humans who are not as good at pre-telling earthquakes as animals.

Rod Hill