Rod's Weather Headlines

The low of 32 degrees Monday morning is the first freezing temperature at PDX since December 30th!  Salem also hit 32 degrees and Troutdale reached 29 degrees.  You can see more low temperatures under the Climate Link on the login page or by selecting your city on the metro current temperature map on the dashboard.  Freezing temperatures will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.  Pacific moisture will keep the air warm at night starting overnight into Thursday.  By the way, Portland continues a streak of normal to above temperatures for each calendar day dating back to January 1st.  Our mild winter is expected to continue into the month of March.  

The big weather story this coming week is the promise of rain most hours Thursday and Friday, potential high winds at the coast through the stretch and a foot of snow or more in the Cascades.  Just what the doctor ordered!  The snowpack on Mt. Hood was measured at 67% of normal back in January.  Lots has been made of our horrible snowpack this winter.  But you know what, the snow totals really are not that bad above 5,000 feet.  Timberline resort has had 275" of total snow this season.  The resort base is currently at 99".  Mt. Hood Meadows reports an 87" base and Bachelor reports 88 inches.  The lower elevations are on the lean side.  Skibowl reports a base of 35 inches.  Snowpack measurements are taken through the end of April.  March can be a big mountain snow month.

January 2010 goes into the record book as the third warmest for the Rose City.  Portland had a mean temperature of 45.0 degrees.  (5.1 degrees above normal)  The average low temperature of 40.5 degrees was also the third warmest.  (6.3 degrees above normal)  Interesting that the month did not see any individual record temperatures.  January did see 16 days reach 50 degrees or warmer and 20 days drop no lower than 40 degrees.  The coldest temperature for the month was 35 degrees.  

Warmest mean temperature for the month of January is 47.3 degrees back in 1953.  January 2006 stands as the 2nd warmest January. 

A strong El Nino with equatorial water temperatures as warm as 5 degrees (F) above normal will continue into early spring.  The National Weather Service outlook for the Northwest calls for mild temperatures and below normal precipitation February and March.  Forecast models show a jet stream track mostly south into California over the coming two weeks.  The flow core will be much weaker and broken this coming week, meaning California will get a break from severe weather.  Interesting to note that early spring plants are showing buds.  By most accounts the budding is taking place at least 2-3 weeks early.  Remember, our last 10 Februarys have been on average about 60% of normal precipitation.  The lack of any major winter event past Jan. 16th over the past 10 years and very quiet Februarys could be associated with a hemispheric trend of an increasing growing season.  This trend of earlier springs is most pronounced here along the west coast.  

All food for thought...

The barometric pressure Thursday at PDX dropped to 28.90" of mercury.  This is the 6th lowest in the record books.  The lowest recorded pressure is 28.56" back in 1880.  Medford as seen their lowest pressure this week in recorded history!  The 500 mb heights continue to be very low - near 520.  This is a reading typically associated with a deep low and an arctic jet flow.  Yet, as you know we continue to be very mild with highs in the 50s!  It is this "unbalance" of the air mass that is producing great instability, gusty to strong winds and the other day, lots of lightning at the coast.  A VERY STRONG JET STREAM continues to hit California.  The golden state has had heavy rain all week and even a tornado in southern California.  The heavy rain to our south and the much stronger storm centers have played a part in our mostly dry weather here in the north.  Look for the weather pattern to stabilize and be a little more"normal" next week.  

By the way, the low upper level pressure heights usually associated with cold air is the reason I was big on projecting low snow levels this week.  I was wrong.  All we got was a little wind, a few lightning strikes and a big batch of not much! 

I want to give you an update that much colder weather is beginning to show up for the last 10 days of January.  The snow level has been really high most days for several weeks.  In fact, most ski resorts have lower base amounts than four weeks ago!   So, the news of possible lowering snow levels down to 2,000' is welcome news.  The snow pack cold use the powder!  Another story as of late, continues to be the relentless east winds in the gorge.  We have seen just 6 days since December 1st  with peak winds less than 20 mph out near the gorge.   A colder and westerly flow will no doubt be welcome news for people living in the east wind zone.  I will tell you that this coming Wednesday evening and Thursday are showing promise for light west winds - enjoy!

Looks like the metro area will escape any freezing rain and see plain old liquid sunshine develop Friday.  If you are  traveling up to Mt. Hood the forecast calls for mostly freezing rain at times Friday, mainly above 1,500 feet and up over the passes.  It is not clear if pass temperatures will warm to freezing or not during the day.  The gorge is also expecting possible ice Friday near Hood River.  The gorge could stay dry until late in the day.  If so, temperatures near Hood River could be above freezing when rain develops.  This will be a wait and see situation. It is not clear if warm air with a west wind will flow through the gorge Friday overnight or not.  All areas will become dry Saturday and remain dry through Sunday.  

Lots of weather developing in the coming days.  The gorge will likely see snow and or ice Wednesday.  Cold air dropping across the upper Midwest and plains states will spill to the west and ignite strong east gorge winds Wednesday and Thursday.  Wind gusts in the west gorge may reach 50 mph or higher!  Also, I am watching the possibility of morning snow or ice in the Salem and Portland metro areas Friday morning.  A weakening push of moisture may never get here, but if it does and temperatures drop to freezing, we would have a situation!  I will keep watching and let you know over the coming days.  Right now, snow levels look to remain above most passes until Tuesday of next week and then bounce back to high levels.  

Let me start by saying, the forecast issued last night for today called for rain - not snow.  I have worked here in Portland for 10 years and each year, usually Salem and or Forest Grove get a surprise snowstorm, matching what happened to day across the entire metro areas.  A simple Pacific front  promising rain, catches the valley on a day that temperatures did not rise as forecasted.  The result of course is snow!  As a forecaster, I will tell you there are dozens of episodes during the winter months that a Pacific front arrives when temperatures are in the 30s and most of the time, as forecasted the temperatures remain around 36 or so and nothing falls but rain.  What happened today is an event that you truly cannot depict until the morning of, when you witness the surface temperatures lock.  I saw the "lock" this morning around 10:00 am when the moisture was approaching Salem.  It is true, that I could have done a better job last night, noting the chilly morning and a potential winter threat, but to be over cautious all the time does not serve the forecast very well either.  So there you have my comments for whatever they are worth. As always, I extend my apologies for a missed forecast.  

Snow reports:  Hillsboro 5", SW Portland 3.2", PDX 1.8", Hazel Dell 3", Oregon City 2", Salem 2".  The Portland metro average was 2-3" across the city.

The clear sky Christmas day in Portland was a rare treat.  The last year the Rose City had even partly cloudy skies on Christmas day was back in 2001.  It has been more than 10 years since clear skies started and finished the holiday.  By the way, with January 10th only 16 days away, it is interesting to note that the last decade has generally seen a lack of big storms and below average moisture the back half of January and the month of February.  In other words, if the trend continues the worst of winter may be nearly over!  To date the water year since Oct. 1st has had 10.88" of rain.  The deficit is -2.11 inches.  (PDX)