Rod's Weather Headlines

Strong east winds will transport dry and very cold air into the Willamette Valley Monday night.  East winds will likely blow into the day Thursday. Strongest winds will occur Tuesday.  Much of the Portland metro will see gusts between 35-45 mph, while areas east of I-205 could see 55 mph wind gusts! Strong winds in the Columbia River Gorge will gusts to 55 mph at low elevations.  Crown Point gusts to 75 mph are expected Tuesday night, Wednesday & Thursday.  A Wind Advisory for the Portland metro region has been issued through 6:00 pm Tuesday. High winds may cause downed trees and power outages. Here is a link to the NWS Wind Chill page:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/winter/windchill.shtml

Valley wind chills or the "feels like" temperature will be near 5 degrees Monday night when the air temperature hits 25 degrees and gusts reach 45 mph. During the day Tuesday, the wind chill factor will be 12 degrees with an air temperature of 30 and gusty winds to 45 mph. Metro low temps Tuesday morning will fall into the upper teens in calmer wind areas, while daytime highs may not reach freezing in spots. This will be the coldest air of the season to date. Returning moisture Friday or Saturday could begin as an icy mix. Please keep updated this week as the Northwest deals with extreme cold.

Other headlines across the state include a Wind Chill Warning tonight and Tuesday morning for the Cascades above 3,000 feet. Blowing wind will make the air feel like 15 to 25 degrees below zero. Outdoor exposure should be avoided as frostbite will quickly take hold of unprotected skin.

Meteorologist Rod Hill

Mt. Hood often catches up in the snow department seemingly overnight, but as the holiday break approaches, the slopes are bare. In fact, the Mt. Hood test site at 5,300 feet has just 8 inches of snow on the ground. The water storage in the snow would melt into just 2.6 inches of liquid, which is the lowest ever recorded in mid-December.  Snowpack measurements at the location date back to 1980. The problem has been a lack of moisture, pointing to a dry November, and high snow levels as storms have arrived in the Cascades.

A year ago the Mt. Hood snowpack was below 50 percent until late January and into early February. Despite the late start, the mountain finished the snow season at better than 90 percent of normal.A late season push of nearly 400" of snow at Timberline saved the water year, but was little comfort for resorts missing out on the important holiday ski season.

A forecast for high snow levels and several inches of rain this weekend will be a wet reminder of what is lacking on the slopes. A dry and clean Highway 26 at Government Camp has meant often easy driving for motorists.

The previous record for low mid-December snowpack was back in 2002. That season was saved by more than 2 feet of snow the last two weeks of the month and had New Year's Day bases of 83" at Timberline, 61" at Meadows and 44" at Ski bowl.  The 2002-2003 snowpack season finished at better than 50 percent of normal statewide.

Meteorologist Rod Hill

Portland's peak south wind gust of 67 mph at 5:23 p.m. Thursday, was the strongest wind at PDX since November 1981 when highs winds reached 71 mph. Plenty of tree branches and damage to be cleaned up, including a number of branches across this forecaster's deck! Much of the metro valley saw peak south winds between 50-55 mph.

The track of a low pressure center just offshore from the Oregon coast and moving south to north was the perfect Willamette valley wind track, which is why forecasters began warning of possible high winds back on Monday. Here is the official wind report from the National Weather Service:

Portland Metro & Willamette Valley

PDX 67 MPH

MT. TABOR 55

HILLSBORO 52

VANCOUVER 60

FOREST GROVE 58

MCMINNVILLE 61

SALEM 53

OREGON CITY 51

BATTLE GROUND 53

HAPPY VALLEY 53

TROUTDALE 52
____________________

I am happy to forecast calm winds today and Saturday,

Meteorologist Rod Hill

A low pressure center tracking south to north along the Oregon coast Thursday could bring hours of strong south winds to the Willamette valley. The National Weather Service map shows the high wind risk area in brown.  Strong south winds will be possible for the valley between 12 noon and 8:00 p.m.  Winds gusts will likely reach 40 mph across much of the metro.  Winds of 45-60 mph will be most likely near the Coast Range & Cascade foothills.  As the low nears Astoria, strong east winds near the gorge may blow to 50 mph or higher. The low center, seen on the map Thursday morning, will push north of Astoria by 8:00 pm, turning winds to the west and bringing calming winds during the evening. Downed trees and power outages will be possible.

If south winds greater than 40 mph develop Thursday, tomorrow would add to an already windy fall season. Consider the EF-1 tornado that hit Longview back on October 23, with 86-100 mph winds. Portland winds peaked at 49 mph from the south on October 25th and east winds at PDX reached 54 mph on November 11th.  East gorge winds reached 80 mph at Crown Point, on November 16h.

Residents living in east metro counties have seen gusty east winds 30-45 mph for 11 days in a row, counting today and saw a stronger 11 day stretch November 10-20th. A trough of low pressure aloft, producing a southwesterly flow pattern allowing surface lows to track near the Oregon coast and cold Canadian air to our east have set up the persistent east wind episodes.

Rod Hill

Sunday's strong east winds, gusting 40-50 mph near the gorge and along the Columbia and possibly blowing to 70 mph at Crown Point will bring in dry air, allowing cold, freezing temperatures Sunday night.  Arriving clouds early Monday, along with gusty east winds may lock metro temperatures below freezing as light rain arrives.  If so, freezing rain would develop. 

Salem may see early ice, but would likely warm above freezing and see rain much of the day.  The Portland metro will see a much better chance of freezing rain for hours Monday morning.  Eastern Clark, Multnomah and Clackamas counties may see pockets of icy weather last much of the day.  The Columbia River Gorge is expected to see a dangerous ice storm, meaning I-84 travel will become very difficult. 

As always, the weather forecast has questions.  A delay in precipitation would lead to simply rain in the Portland area.  Please keep updated. 

A warm front has brought mild temperatures and high snow levels near 8,000 feet to our region! The news is good for holiday travelers who will find mountain passes with bare pavement and above freezing temperatures even at night through Thanksgiving morning. The ODOT camera at Government Camp shows a clear roadway with melting roadside snow this morning. The Santiam Pass camera shows much the same.

The snow level forecast calls for colder air this weekend, lowering snow levels to 4,000 feet Saturday and then rising slightly Sunday afternoon to 5,000 feet. No big storms, but possible heavy snow showers at times Saturday and Sunday could slow travel over Cascade roadways. Motorist should stay updated for changing weather conditions. The graphic shows local Cascade pass elevations. All Coast Range travel will find above freezing temps and dry or rainy weekend highways.

The warm weather is not good news for Mt. Hood ski resorts working hard to open for the holiday weekend. Above freezing temperatures at night possibly into Thursday will produce rapid melting of what was 2 feet of snow. Resorts such as Mt. Hood Meadows have been farming the white stuff, moving available snow to the slopes in hopes of providing limited terrain for holiday fun. Latest conditions are available on the resort's website:

This morning's hard freeze and killing frost is the first of the fall season. Portland did dip to 32 degrees back on November 12th, marking the first light freeze of the season. Unofficial low temperatures this morning include: 28 degrees at PDX, 21 at Hillsboro, Scappoose and Ridgefield. Salem dipped to 24 degrees and Vancouver 19 degrees!

This morning's cold was not record setting, in fact the record low at PDX for November 15th is 13 degrees back in 1955. Salem dropped to 9 degrees on the same date! The average first fall freeze for the Rose City is November 8th and the earliest on record is October 8th back in 1985.

The National Weather Service says Portland officially picked up a trace of snow on Thursday. No doubt that the wintry weather is a bit early, but not unprecedented. Portland has picked up November snow a handful of times over the years, including an inch on Nov. 10th back in 1911 and more recently, 3" on the 19th back in 1978 and .3" of snow on the 22nd in 2010. The earliest recorded trace of snow, fell on halloween back in 1955.

History tells us there is no correlation between an early November cold snap and the up-coming winter months. Current outlooks from the Weather Service keep the Northwest in the above normal category for temperatures through the month of January, when averaged over time. We will slowly pull out of the cold weather next week. A strong Pacific cold front tracking to arrive next Friday would scour out all remaining cold pockets.

 Meteorologist Rod Hill

The National Weather Service has issued a HIGH WIND WARNING for Tuesday & Wednesday across the Portland metro.  Strong east wind gusts may reach 50-60 mph.  Areas near the Columbia River and the east of I-5 will see the strongest winds.  Power outages and down trees will be possible.  Salem is not included in the wind warning, but may see gusty winds to 40 mph at times. 

Wind gusts in the Columbia River Gorge may reach 75 mph and higher at upper elevations.  The east wind will lower dew points into the teens Tuesday night, making freezing temperatures possible in the metro as moisture arrives Wednesday night and Thursday.  A mix of snow and ice will be possible.  Please realize the temperature forecast is very uncertain.  Strong east winds may hold temps well above freezing, which would mean Thursday rain. 

Thursday travel in the Gorge will likely encounter winter conditions.  Snow and ice may also accumulate along the east slopes of the Coast Range. To repeat, all of the metro valley of Portland and Salem could see a mix of snow and ice arriving early Thursday morning and continuing during the day. 

Rod Hill