Rod's Weather Headlines

The spring outlook calls for above normal temperatures to continue through the month of June. The outlook map from NOAA, shows warm weather color coded in brown tones across much of the western United States. So far, 2015 in Portland is running a temperature average nearly 4.00 degrees above normal, including the last 21 days in a row with warmer than normal temperatures. You likely recall that February set an all-time record with a mean temperature average of 5.4 degrees above normal.

The NOAA outlook for precipitation calls for drier than normal weather over our region. However, present day forecast models show a good chance of normal rainfall for Portland through the first 10 days of April. I feel a better spring rainfall projection through at least May is to call for near normal rainfall. Total moisture for March to date is 4.51 inches, well above the 3.68" considered normal for the entire month. So far this year, January is the only month to see below normal rainfall at PDX. The water year total dating back to October 1st is near normal with a total of 26.53 inches.

It is true that the metro valley is seeing fewer than normal rainy days. However record daily rainfall has accumulated three times this month alone, keeping precipitation totals on track. All total since January 1st, PDX has enjoyed 11 bonus dry days. Meaning nearly 2 weeks of dry days above the historical average.

Of course news for the Mt. Hood snowpack continues to hover near the record lows of 2005. To date, the snowpack is 24% of average with only 13.8" of stored water should the snow melt. A normal year snowpack would have better than 50" of stored water or SWE this time of year. It continues to be highly likely, that the snowpack will finish the season May 1st with less than 50% of normal. Of course the problem is not a lack of moisture but warm temperatures producing rain not snow. The photo taken this week from Mt. Hood Skibowl is one of only a few days this season showing snow on the resort's front face. Timberline and Meadows have roughly a third of the amount of snow on the ground when compared to one year ago.

Meteorologist Rod Hill

With a sunny warm weekend forecast, it is safe to say March has started like a lamb! According to weather folklore, a "lamb" beginning always leads to a roaring lion finish as April approaches. If true, this piece of weather savvy knowledge would mean chilly wet days for the Northwest are just 2-3 weeks away. Below, I examine the truth behind the common belief.

Going back 15 years to the March of 2000, Portland has started March one way and finished the opposite 10 times. Of those 10 years, March came in like a lamb and went out like a lion 5 times and did the opposite an equal number. In other words, history tells us this March has a two in three chance of ending wet as a roaring lion!

Looking in the record book, March 2005 seems to match this month's warm start the best. The first ten days of the month that year hit 60 degrees or better 6 days and warmed into the 70s three times! The last 6 days of March 2005 saw nearly 3.00 inches of rain fall with highs mostly in the low to mid 50s.

If we use March of 2005 as a clue to predict this spring and summer, here are the results. March of 2005 was in the middle of three consecutive neutral seasons, meaning no La Nina or El Nino.  Although this winter is a borderline weak El Nino pattern for the Northwest, it can be argued that we are in the 3rd year of near neutral conditions.  I say this, to give some positive weight to a March 2005 comparison.  

The spring of 2005 did go on to see above normal rainfall.  In fact, May of that year was the 5th wettest on record at PDX.  But, the summer months of July, August and September saw beautiful northwest weather.  Only 14 days saw high temperatures of 90 degrees and no days reached 100.  (Far more comfortable than the 21- 90 degree days we experienced last summer.)  Better than half of all summer days back in 2005 saw sunny skies from start to finish. 

In conclusion, the record book shows a good chance of rainy days to finish the month. However, current forecast outlooks show this year could be an exception, meaning drier and warmer than normal weather could continue into April.  The final point is that history shows this summer could be nice and comfortable.  Meaning today's warm air may not be a sign of hot days to come. 

Meteorologist Rod Hill    (March 6, 2015)

PORTLAND SETS RECORD FOR WARMEST WINTER SEASON AND WARMEST FEBRUARY!

Portland (PDX) sets record for the warmest meteorological winter on record. The period measured is December 1st through the end of February.  The record mean was 45.4 degrees, beating out the old record of 45.2 degrees set back in 1957-1958. The record mean temperature refers to the total average temperature of each day. While this past winter barely eclipsed the previous record set back in the 1950s, February 2015 blew away the record for the second month of the year. Last month's mean temperature of 49.2 degrees was more than 5 1/2 degrees above average, surpassing the old record of 48.8 degrees set back in 1991. Every day last month except for the first, averaged above normal.

It may surprise you to know that February precipitation was actually .05" above normal with a total of 3.71 inches. The first nine days of the month saw heavy rainfall at times.

The Mt. Hood snowpack continues to hold near 30% of average for this time of year. It is note worthy that total moisture on the mountain has likely been well over 70% of normal, but much of the precipitation has been rain, not snow. Simply put, Mt. Hood is having a warm temperature crisis this season, not a moisture deficit. Warm weather over the Northwest is producing high snow levels, bringing rain, not snow.

Rod Hill

Mt. Hood resorts are hopeful of at least 8" of new snow in time for this weekend! This resorts are still hoping for a good Spring Break season, but the clock is ticking. The Mt. Hood test site reports 30 inches of snow on the ground, that would melt into just over 13" of stored water. The totals are 28% of normal for this time of year and barely above the poor snow season of 2004-2005, when the snowpack finished the year at 44% of normal.

Mt. Hood Meadows continues to make the most of 30" at the base lodge and more than 60" on the upper mountain. The resort is offering discounted lift tickets to attract skiers to the slopes. You can learn more at: http://www.skihood.com/

Extended forecast models show no promise of a changing weather pattern through the month of March. One year ago, a snowy spring dumped 200 inches of snow between March 1st and April 30th. If the snow machine does not get turned on quickly, Mt. Hood will likely finish the season near 50% of normal snowpack at best!  The map shows a warm March forecast highlighted in brown shading over all of the west.  

It is important to note, that our region is not having a precipitation problem. In fact, water year totals dating back to October 1st are near normal. What we are seeing is unusually high snow levels, brought on by warm temperatures, producing rainy weather systems over the Cascades at elevations tpically seeing snow. 

Records at PDX for rainy days, show on average, January and February have 33 total days with measurable rainfall. So far, this year has seen .01" of rain or more only 23 days. The low number of rainy days has produced and illusion of drier than normal rain totals.

We all know that weather patterns often quickly change. Keep an eye, but at this point I expect more warm, pleasant days as meteorological spring begins March 1st.

Meteorologist Rod Hill

At the half way point, February has set a record high temperature, been above normal all but the first day of the month and is on a sizzling pace of 6 degrees warmer than the 30-year average! If the current pace of warm temperatures continues, we could be experiencing the warmest February on record for Portland.

The all-time February warm record was set back in 1991 with a mean temperature of 48.8 degrees, just more than 5 degrees above normal. With current forecast trends showing warm weather through the 23rd of the month, it seems likely that Feb. 2015 will at least finish as one of the top 5 warmest months.

The outlook map from the National Weather Service shows the Northwest in the bulls-eye of warm weather for the months of February, March and April. If true, snow levels would continue to be mostly above 5,000 or 6,000 feet, making a snowpack catch up on Mt. Hood unlikely. Outlooks through April also suggest normal or drier than normal rates of precipitation.

At the time of this posting, there are signs of significant mountain snow the last 4-5 days of this month, with snow levels below 4,000 feet.

Meteorologist Rod Hill

The latest winter storm in Boston, leaves the city with 77 inches of total snowfall this  winter, equaling the total at Mt. Hood Meadows Ski Resort!  That's right, the city of Boston and Mt. Hood Meadows have each seen 77 inches of total snowfall this winter season. The photo of snow plows in Boston shows the difficulty of a winter season with nearly 300% of normal snowfall.

Mt. Hood Meadows is celebrating 6 inches plus of new snow over the past 24 hours. The resort is open and making the most of what has been a poor year for snow so far. The Mt. Hood snowpack is currently 32% of normal with a depth of 32 inches at the test site.

The amount of snow on the ground at Mt. Hood resorts is nearly identical to February of 2005, which is the last winter season on the mountain to finish below 50% of normal snowpack. Current forecast models show lower snow levels next week and the promise of new snow. However, at this point it would take a miracle March and April to end the snow season any where close to normal.

Our region has been blessed to see only one snow season finish less than 50% or normal, dating back to the year 2000. Unless snow patterns change in a hurry, this winter season will become the second. Mt. Hood resorts are open, grooming and making the most of the 2-4 feet of snow on the slopes. The good news is that driving conditions are great and temperatures are pleasant to enjoy the beauty of the Cascades.

Meteorologist Rod Hill

January finishes above normal at PDX, but not warm enough to make the list of top five months. The mean temperature for January 2015 was 43.4 degrees, a full two degrees above normal, but typically three degrees above normal is needed to break into record territory.

January was memorable for the 17 days warming to 50 degrees and higher. The total is the most since 2000 and perhaps much longer. The month also hit 60 degrees twice, which was the most for January since 2003.

In terms of history, both 2006 and 2010 had warmer starts to the year than last month. The warmest January on record occurred back in 1953. The mean temperature that month was 47.3 degrees, nearly four degrees warmer than what Portland just experienced!

Rainfall was below normal last month, but still more than 3.00" fell at PDX. The water year total going back to October 1st continues to be near normal to date with more than 18" in the rain bucket. Of course the snowpack on Mt. Hood is simply melting away with less than 40% of normal on the ground and more rain then snow in the upcoming forecast. Mt Hood has seen plenty of moisture this season, but snow levels have been high, bringing rain to slopes that typically see snow this time of year.

Meteorologist Rod Hill, follow me @

If February on Mt. Hood gets off to a warm and dry start, the lack of snow at resorts will become an increasingly large story, not to mention unusual for this time of year. Last season began warm and dry, but a rapid turn around began the last 10 days of January and continued with Timberline Lodge picking up nearly 200 inches of snow through the first few days of March! The Mt. Hood snowpack ended the season at 92% of normal.   

Year to date snowfall this season has been similar to one year ago. The snowpack measuring site was 45% of normal to end December 2013 and actually slightly higher this past December at 48% as 2014 ended. The startling difference may lie ahead in the coming weeks. Current forecast outlooks show a drier and warmer than normal February weather pattern for Mt. Hood. A combination of melting snow due to warm temperatures and a lack of snowfall next month would leave the mountain with little chance of ending the snow season much above 50% at best of normal.

The last year Mt. Hood failed to finish the season, ending April 30th, with 50% or better of normal snowpack was back in 2005, when the season finished with a 60 inch snow depth and a snowpack just 44% of normal. The comparison to this year is too close for comfort:

January 25th, 2005, Timberline Lodge base of 43 inches, Meadows base 25 inches.

January 25th, 2015, Timberline Lodge base of 40 inches, Meadows base 32 inches.

The problem this season has not been a lack of precipitation, but rather numerous days with high snow levels and rain falling instead of snow over Mt. Hood resorts. The low snow level of 2004-2005 also delivered near normal total moisture during the months of November, December and January. The spring months of 2005 were dry with roughly 50% of normal precipitation. A pattern we hope does not repeat in the months ahead.

It is important to note, that Portland water needs come from spring rainfall not mountain snowpack. Also, while not ideal, one low snow year can be tolerable. Droughts are made up of multiple consecutive dry years.

Meteorologist Rod Hill

Weekend rainfall sets daily record at PDX and keeps Portland on track for a normal water year. Saturday's rainfall of 1.80" was the 2nd wettest day of this water year, only behind the 1.88" that fell on October 22nd.

Of course precipitation news is not as good on Mt. Hood. Mostly rain over the weekend has left the Mt. Hood snowpack at 42% of average for the date. Meadows reports 5" of new snow this morning with 38 inches of snow at their lodge and 71 inches mid-mountain. At 4,000 feet, Skibowl only has the few inches from last night on the front slope.

Forecast outlooks show high confidence of a drier and warmer than normal February. If true, the Cascade snowpack will need a 200% of normal March to finish with a decent snowpack. The first map shows above normal February temperatures predicted, shaded in brown. The 2nd map shows a classic El Nino flow pattern with rainy weather over Texas, shown in green and below normal rainfall next month over the Northwest.

Recent years have shown a trend of very wet spring months which gives hope of good water storage in the mountains.

Meteorologist Rod Hill, follow me @

A tropical plume of moisture will push inland Sunday Jan. 4th and Sunday night, dumping heavy rain across much of western Washington.  Heaviest rainfall will likely be north toward Seattle, but inches of rain could fall over the Willapa Hills near the Columbia River and across much of Cowlitz county.  Forecast models show 2-3" could fall.  River and streams in these areas will likely rise quickly during the day Monday and into Monday night.  The Grays River near Rosburg, Washington may reach flood stage, while other water ways reach bankfull.  

Please be aware of possible high water spots.  Dry weather in the forecast Tuesday & Wednesday will allow for rivers to recede.

Rod Hill