Rod's Weather Headlines

NWS confirms EFO tornado with estimated peak wind gusts reaching 75 mph.  The weak tornado was on the ground 2 miles with a path width of 600 years (1/8 mile).  Damage report only details small to medium size trees. 

If you have not heard, unofficial at this point, but an expected weak - likely EF0 tornado near Damascus at 6:30 this evening. NWS will send field investigator tomorrow morning who may verify a weak tornado with winds 65-85 mph. Reports of tree damage as the funnel passed overhead. The heavy rain, lightning and high winds this afternoon were triggered by a cold upper level low pushing inland. The cold pool of air aloft has warmed at this hour, meaning the threat of lightning and stormy weather has ended. Much of Sunday should be dry with warmer temps.  

(Image courtesy of Tim Lussier. You can see the video posted on NWS - Portland Twitter page)

The updated June outlook from the National Weather Service pushes back the call for hot weather until July.  Forecast models show mainly comfortable days in the 70s through the first two weeks of our new month.  Total rainfall over the 30 days could average near the climate normal of 1.70 inches. 

The map shows the Northwest in the EC zone which stands for equal chance or no confidence for hot or cool temperatures.  The green shade clearly shows the chance for normal to above rainfall.  

Of course a lack of hot days in the 90s and at least periodic rain showers could go a long way to delaying the start of wildfire season.  

Rod Hill

Sunny skies, 70s and breezy east winds return today. The combination, along with our very dry March and April have prompted a Fire Weather Watch this afternoon and evening for the Willamette Valley and much of southwest Washington. Please refrain from open burning and keep an eye. Any grass fire could quickly spread.

Our large rainfall deficit and melting mountain snowpack may lead to a long, active fire season.  Forecasters at the NW Fire Interagency show July to be at high risk for large wildfires.   The April - June outlook map below shows on the left, a forecast for above normal temps over all of the Northwest.  The right side map shows all of our region to be at high confidence for below normal rainfall over the coming months. 

A water deficit already in place has most of Oregon in drought conditions.  The water deficit for Portland is nearly 8" below normal going back to October 1st.  Only January since last fall has delivered normal to above rainfall totals. 

 Persistent drought conditions set up this final map.  The red shaded areas indicate a high risk for large wildfires starting in the month of July.  Notice much of Oregon and central Washington are in the high risk projection.   (I apologize the map is a bit fuzzy)

For more information, you can listen to a 14 minute presentation from the NW Fire Interagency Coordination Center:

 Outlook Video_Climate Explanation

It is a well know fact, that a dry spring in the Northwest often adds to what is a typically a long dry summer season.  The combo has in the past led to long fire seasons.  Of course many factors will ultimately determine the fire risk in the months ahead, but at this point it is likely time for a rain dance.

Meteorologist Rod Hill

Hoping for partly cloudy skies Saturday night to see the full Snow Moon. Native American tribes called the 2nd full moon of each year the snow moon due to typical February snow on the ground.

After possible record highs near 60 degrees on this Friday, a Saturday cold front will 
bring much colder air with rain at times, chilly northwest winds and falling snow levels
during the day to 2,000 feet. 

The cool-off continues Saturday night, as snow levels lower to 1,000 feet, impacting both
the Cascade passes and the Coast Range through the day Sunday with snowy travel. 

The 1000 feet snow level could also lead to potential snow on the ground over the high metro 
hills and cities such as Sandy. 

The cold air aloft will trigger Sunday heavy showers over the Rose City with likely hail at times
and a possible a snow mix in the air. 

Monday brings back widespread freezing temps to start the day, but dry weather is expected. 
Snow levels will rise during the day Tuesday as moisture returns.  If Tuesday moisture returns earlier
than expected, a wintry mix will be possible before all changes to rain. 

Rod Hill

NWS also reports a water spout at 11:05 just off the coast from Depoe Bay.   These two incidents join a list of severe weather events that have developed along the coast on days where lightning activity was unusually high.  Lightning detection showed numerous strikes near the coat from 3:00 am through the noon hour on this Tuesday.  NWS reports no injuries with these two events.