Rod's Weather Headlines

Wind Advisory for strong east winds near the gorge

By Rod Hill on 2020-12-02

The National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory for the Portland metro, including much of Clark County.  The advisory for strong east winds is in effect through 4:00 pm this afternoon.  Peak wind gusts may reach 40-50 mph near the gorge and the Columbia River.  Other areas, including Hillsboro may see east gusts reach 35 mph.   Winds in the gorge at Crown Point may reach 70 mph or higher. The strongest wind threat will end this evening.  



Cold air settling in the Columbia Basin thanks to a surface high, will stay in place through at least Friday, along with a temperature inversion pattern.  The weather setup will continue
to produce gusty east winds the next few days.  Peak gusts at Troutdale on Thursday may reach 35-40 mph.   

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EF-0 St. Helens Tornado

By Rod Hill on 2020-11-10

A strong rain cell at 12:20 Tuesday afternoon produced strong winds, leading to roof damage to a home and damage to other homes from large limbs.  Initial reports indicate this was a tornado.  The isolated cell in a northwesterly flow is not our typical or most high chance scenario to produce weak tornadoes.

Here is the NWS report:  

1220 PM     TORNADO          2 W SAINT HELENS        45.86N 122.85W
11/10/2020                   COLUMBIA           OR   NWS STORM SURVEY

            UPDATED PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT FROM 2 W
            SAINT HELENS. TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN
            NORTHWEST ST HELENS, NEAR INTERSECTION OF
            PITTSBURG AND ROBINETTE RD. THE TORNADO
            MOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST, WITH LIGHT DAMAGE.
            MOST DAMAGES WAS NEAR BARR AVE AND PITTSBURG
            ROAD, WITH DAMAGE TO SOME TREES, A CAMPER,
            AND SNAPPED POWER LINES. THE TORNADO ENDED
            JUST EAST OF THE MCBRIDE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
            IN ST HELENS. TORNADO PATH LENGTH WAS ABOUT
            1.7 MILES, WITH A DAMAGE PATH WIDTH OF ABOUT
            200 YARDS. ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS 60 TO 65 MPH
            MAKING THE TORNADO AN EF-0. THE START TIME
            WAS AROUND 12:20 PM AND ENDED AROUND 12:26
            PM.


Rod Hill

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Winter Outlook 2020 - 2021

By Rod Hill on 2020-10-23

Rod Hill’s 2020-2021 Winter Outlook



NOAA projects a 75% likelihood that La Nina conditions will remain in place through the entirety of the winter season.  The projection is for Pacific waters in the equatorial region off the coast of South America to average -1 to -1.4 degrees Celsius below climate average which would classify as a moderate La Nina.  La Nina conditions are the basis from my “active” winter outlook. 


Looking at La Nina years as a whole dating back to 1950 and especially zeroing in on moderate episodes the forecast headline for this coming winter is that a dry season would be highly unlikely. 

 

Here is my outlook:




The highest confidence of the outlook is the call for heavier than normal rainfall from November through March. Having 6” of November rain or higher will be key to a wet water year.  My projection would lead to a 40” total water year or higher for the 2020-2021 season.  (Normal at PDX is 36.03”)




The valley temperature outlook calls for a warmer than normal season overall, largely due to mild overnight temperatures being produced by an active, wet westerly flow pattern.  I am watching the possibility of a dry streak in December that would lead to freezing overnight temperatures.  February appears to be the best chance of seeing an Arctic air mass with much below normal temperatures.




Of course the “biggie” when it comes to winter projections is the valley snow forecast.  La Nina years offer the highest probability to see valley snowfall.  The snowy December of 2008 was a weak La Nina season, which stands in slight contrast to the expected moderate La Nina this winter. 

December of 2008 saw 19” of snowfall, a record Christmas Day depth of 10” on the ground and 24” for the winter season!  While some snow is likely this season, the biggest winter snows for the valley since 2000 have come during weak La Nina and Neutral years.  This year is expected to be a moderate La Nina season which have produced a season range from 3” to 22” dating back to 1950.  Meaning we have always had at least some snow and the chance of a big one is elevated. 



Here are the final headlines for my Portland Winter 2020-2021 Outlook:



_________________________________________________________


The Mt. Hood snowpack is also of particular interest and the news is good as La Nina seasons typically bring good to great seasons and rarely disappoint.



I chose not to include valley windstorms in this outlook.  It is not uncommon in any winter season to have several 50 mph wind gusts events, including east gorge winds.  The Columbus Day storm of 1962 was a Neutral Enso Year.  

Here is hoping this winter brings you the weather you love!

Meteorologist Rod Hill



____________________________________________________


My report card from last winter was not good.  

 

1.  I projected near normal Mt Hood snow - turned out to be much drier than normal.  (I will email the exact figure to you this afternoon)

 

2.  I projected a good chance to see of one 8” snow event in Portland.  PDX had 1/2” in 

     the month of March.  This was a big fail on my part. 

 

3.  My rainfall forecast was good!   I projected a Nov - March total of 18.39” and the season total

     was 17.47”.

 

*I do believe the lack of cold weather and snow was in large part due to the Pacific “blob” of warm waters that formed off of the Northwest coastline last winter.  January saw the 6th warmest PDX high temp. average in the record book.  No signs of the so-called warm blob this winter.  The Gulf of Alaska should be wide open to bring an active winter season. 

 


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Planet Mars the brightest view until 2035

By Rod Hill on 2020-10-07

Get ready to see planet Mars up close!

 
Credit: Stellarium Web

Mars was at its closest distance to Earth at 38.5 million miles earlier this morning. At magnitude of -2.61, observers with backyard telescopes can expect to see the Mars with more detail than it will exhibit for 15 years, especially after midnight, when the planet will be due south.  Mars will be brighter than nearby Jupiter.
 
After today, Mars will officially reach opposition on October 13. The bright red planet will rise from the east at sunset (6:27 p.m.), climb to its highest position, 49° above the southern horizon (1 a.m.), and set in the west at sunrise (7:26 a.m.). At opposition, Mars will shine at visual magnitude of -2.62. Although it will be farther from Earth at distance of 38.57 million miles than it was on October 6, Mars will still be an impressive sight.

What is a planetary opposition?  Opposition marks the middle of the best time of year to see an outer planet. It’s when Earth is passing between an outer planet and the sun, placing the planet opposite the sun in our sky. A planet at opposition is closest to Earth, and it rises when the sun sets and can be viewed throughout the night.

Mars oppositions occur approximately every 25.5 months. Because of the two planets’ elliptical orbits, even at each opposition the distance between Earth and Mars can vary by almost 31 million miles.

After opposition, Mars will steadily diminish in brightness, but it will impressive for observing for rest of 2020. Mars will not reach solar conjuction until October 8, 2021.

So enjoy Mars in October 2020! You won’t see it this bright again until September 2035.

Jim Todd

OMSI Director of Space Science Education

 

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LABOR DAY WIND WARNING FOR PORTLAND STARTS AT 5:00 PM

By Rod Hill on 2020-09-07

Greater Portland Metro Area-Greater Vancouver Area-
Including the cities of Hillsboro, Portland, Wilsonville,
Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Vancouver, Battle Ground,
Ridgefield, Washougal, Yacolt, and Amboy
423 AM PDT Mon Sep 7 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 1 PM PDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 30 mph with widespread gusts of 40 to
  55 mph are expected. Locally stronger winds with gusts of 60
  to 65 mph are possible across the West Hills and areas east of
  the Portland and Vancouver Airports.

* WHERE...Greater Portland and Vancouver metro area.

* WHEN...From 5 PM Monday to 1 PM PDT Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Tree limbs and even whole trees will be susceptible
  to being blown down. Be prepared for power outages. Travel
  will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles along
  Interstate 205.
* FIRE CONCERNS...Conditions will be favorable for rapid fire
  spread. Use extreme caution with potential ignition sources.

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2020 Perseid Meteor Shower

By Rod Hill on 2020-08-10

Peak viewing of this year's Perseid Meteor Shower takes place between midnight and the predawn hours of August 11 - 13th.   Experts say 40-50 meteors per hour may be visible depending on sky conditions.  The northeastern sky is your best bet.  Our local forecast calls for a marine layer of low cloud cover Tuesday overnight into Wednesday morning.  Otherwise local viewing away from city lights should be on the good side.  The meteors we see are tiny space debris from comet Swift-Tuttle. 


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NW FIRE SEASON UPDATE

By Rod Hill on 2020-07-30

The NW Large Fire Map shows a total of 6 wildfires burning. Most of the blazes are near containment. The two Oregon fires are less than 400 acres at last check. So far, our fire season is off to a fairly quiet start. Here is praying we stay quiet in the weeks ahead. The forecast does show cooler temps over the next 14 days.

Today's forecast high of 95 degrees for Portland will become the 7th day of 2020 with 90 degree temps or hotter.  With the forecast outlook showing few if any days near and above 90 through the first 10 days of August, it is possible our summer season will hold near the average of 12-13 hot days for the calendar year.  

Rod Hill



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Comet Neowise Update

By Rod Hill on 2020-07-15

UPDATE: July 15, 2020

Comet NEOWISE (2020 F3) is putting on an impressive showing in the pre-dawn northern sky after reaching perihelion or its closest point to the Sun on July 3.  The comet passed 0.29 astronomical unit or 26,957,184 million miles from the Sun.  It was discovered by NASA’s Near Earth Object Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (NEOWISE) spacecraft on March 27.

According to NASA, the comet has a very large nucleus.  Researchers working with NASA’s NEOWISE spacecraft have analysed infra-red emissions of the comet’s core, taken from the spacecraft, and by combining this with visible-light images has revealed that the nucleus is about three miles across and covered with dark particles left over from its formation near the time of the origins of our Solar System some 4.6 billion years ago.  JPL:https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=7697

The flood of images show a healthy-looking comet displaying an impressive fan-shaped tail.  Its main dust tail extends to around six degrees in length as seen in the best images and its also sprouted a an ion tail.  

https://spaceweathergallery.com/index.php?title=neowise

After July 14, as Comet NEOWISE heads out, it will likely no longer be visible by eye, but best viewed with binoculars.  About 1 hour after sunset, when you will find it just above the northwestern horizon as the twilight fades into darkness.  Look for the comet near the bowl of the Big Dipper, which is hanging down by its handle above, and from there perhaps to its west.

Each evening thereafter the comet will be getting dimmer at magnitude of +2 to +3, but it will also be getting higher above the horizon.  On July 23rd, when Comet NEOWISE is its closest to Earth, will certainly need binoculars or a telescope as it is predicted to be at magnitude +3 to +4 (brightest of the stars of Ursa Minor).  Comets are generally unpredictable.

(the above courtesy of Jim Todd - Space Science Director OMSI)



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LUNAR ECLIPSE - JULY 4TH

By Rod Hill on 2020-07-03

Watch Saturday evening, July 4th, for the lunar eclipse.  The sun will set at 9:02 and the full moon will rise at 9:03.  The totality of the moon passing through the Earth's shadow will be at 9:29 pm.  Due to the moon position being low in the eastern sky, the view of the eclipse is likely to be dimmed or diminished.  The eclipse will end at 10:52 as the moon moves completely away from the shadow cast by Earth.  Although skies will be partly to mostly clear, fireworks haze may also reduce viewing.  

Later in the night, around midnight with the moon high in the sky, look for Jupiter and Saturn to shine brightly just to the east or left of the full moon. 

Rod Hill 

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Portland's Summer Not As Hot As Earlier Predictions?

By Rod Hill on 2020-06-29

You may recall that early summer outlooks from the NWS had Portland and much of the Northwest expecting a hot and dry summer, meaning temps above normal.  It looks like June will average close to climate average and the outlook map below shows cooler than average temps the first 2 weeks of July.


Anyone in favor of holding off hot weather until August?
So far, PDX has hit 90 degrees two days and I don't see any hot ones in our near future.  It remains possible that our region will see a hot back-end of summer, but confidence is growing that earlier outlooks calling for above normal heat this summer will be proven incorrect. 



Rod Hill



( Temp map on the left shows below normal temps the 1st two weeks of July.  The rainfall map on the right shows little confidence for a rain projection, but does not favor a bone dry month.)


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