Rod's Weather Headlines

April Snow Sets All-Time Records

By Rod Hill on 2022-04-11

PDX reports 1" of snow, the most ever in the month of April. Airport snow records date back to October of 1940. 2" at KGW also breaks the downtown Portland record for snow this late in the season. Downtown records date back as far as the year 1870. Other reports as of 7:00 this morning: 2" Hazel Dell, 4-5" in the West Hills, 5 1/2" in Ridgefield, 4" of snow out in Banks and 7 1/2" in Skamania at 645 feet. Still expecting most areas to transition into rain around 10:00 a.m.

Snow levels for scattered precipitation will hold near 1,500' Tuesday and Wednesday. Snow flurries will be possible overnight as cold April weather continues.

Rod Hill

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Arctic Air Mass To Bring Near Record Cold

By Rod Hill on 2022-02-19

Arctic air to drop over the Rockies next week and spill into the Northwest as east winds start to blow during the day Tuesday.  Bitter cold at times Tuesday through Thursday night with possible snow Thursday night and Friday. 

Below is the American GFS model air mass map next Tuesday, the 22nd.  The bright purple represents the center of the Arctic air mass where daily temps will be a good 20 degrees below seasonal average over the Rockies and the plains, including Nebraska. This is the batch of air the gorge east winds will be blowing off of and advecting the cold air into the Willamette valley. 




The extended 7day forecast model most widely used by forecasters.  The bottom line (DPT) shows the dew point forecast.  As dry east winds pick up during the day Tuesday, notice the dew points lower to 11 degrees Wednesday morning and hold at 18 degrees Thursday morning and still well below freezing at 27 degrees Friday morning.  Gusty east winds will hold temps up a bit, but calmer conditions with clear skies would easily allow for overnight valley temps dropping to near 20 degrees or possibly upper teens Wednesday morning and again Thursday morning. 




The Euro model shows a push of warm air advection Thursday night into Friday morning, bringing possible moisture into freezing temps.  At this time, some accumulating snow is at least possible next Thursday night and Friday morning, followed by warming daytime temps and rain showers. 

A strong cold front with breezy south winds and deep moisture should easily hold next Friday night temps above freezing with rain and rising snow levels back to 4,000 or 5,000 feet Saturday Feb. 26th, which looks like a rain soaker at this time with valley temps in the 40s. 

Keep in mind that gusty east winds tend to hold actual air temperatures up a bit, making for a difficult low temperature forecast.  The same wind also holds afternoon temps down, especially when advecting cold air from a bitterly cold Arctic air mass dropping south over the Rockies. 

At this time, the data supports a widespread hard freeze for 2-3 nights next week.   Windy areas near the gorge may see overnight lows hold near 32 degrees or above, while calmer locations report upper teens and record lows. 

Keep updated with my 7day forecast,

Rod Hill 


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Dry, quiet February to continue

By Rod Hill on 2022-02-03

An update to what continues to look like a very quiet and dry February overall.  Right now, I don’t see any daily precip totals reaching 1/4 inch in Portland until the 14th or possibly the 17th or 18th of February.  Earlier GFS weather models were flirting with cold weather around the 14th, but now the same model agrees with others that snow levels during the said period will likely stay near to above 2,000 feet.  The Euro model does go active the final week of the month with chilly highs in the low to mid 40s with heavy rain at times. 


Next week's dry spell after a Monday shower chance will likely produce overnight lows near freezing in parts of the valley with clear overnight skies and light winds.  Depending on morning fog patterns, each day Tuesday through at least Saturday will warm into the 50s with mostly sunny skies. Daily mean temp averages could be near normal with chilly nights, but mild afternoons.  

The air mass image below showing Sunday Feb. 13, clearly shows (in purple) the trend of Canadian air dropping south across the upper midwest and eastern US.   This pattern as I have previously stated, is an eastern shift in cold troughing from outlook models going back to last fall.  The result is the much milder air mass pattern over the Pacific Northwest that may hold over the next two weeks. 


Below is the Euro Model on February 23rd.  Notice the cold trough of air shifting to the west (blue color).  The model
patterns suggest a rainy final 7 days of the month with Portland low temperature averages around 36-38 degrees and daytime highs in the low to mid 40s.  The mean temp average would be roughly -4 to -5 degrees below normal. 




Rod Hill




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FLOOD WATCH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY

By Rod Hill on 2022-01-05

The NWS Warning Map is once again lit up. (Dark Green) Flood Watch Thursday and Friday for another inch of rain in the valley this afternoon and tonight and more rain Thursday night into Friday morning. In addition a warm front Wednesday night will bring rising snow levels to 6,000’ Thursday morning, leading to run off. At least several rivers will be near Flood Stage Thursday night and Friday morning.




A new Winter Storm for the Cascades today for another foot plus of new snow, A Winter Storm Warning for the Gorge Noon Today - 10am Thursday for additional 3-9” of snow in Hood River. Gorge temps at lowest elevations will warm above freezing today and see a daytime wet mix, followed by freezing overnight temps with snow. Dry weather finally takes hold late Friday and continues through the weekend.

Rod Hill

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WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PORTLAND

By Rod Hill on 2021-12-23

NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Willamette Valley and southwest Washington for Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. The main snow threat at low elevations, including downtown Portland continues to be Saturday evening into Monday morning. I still believe most areas will wake up to snow on the ground Sunday morning.




My forecast continues to call for 2-5" of accumulation through Sunday daytime with another 1-3" of possible snow Sunday night into Monday morning. The fact that Sunday afternoon temps may warm to 35 degrees makes the low elevation snow forecast somewhat uncertain. However, near and above 500 feet should see see at least 6" through the period and possibly 8-10" with sticking snow beginning Christmas Day.

-Rod Hill

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Portland - Snow Amount Forecast Christmas Weekend

By Rod Hill on 2021-12-22

Snow update time. Keep in mind the graphic shows current output from weather models that generally agree through the day Wednesday. Tomorrow, timelines, snow amounts, temps etc will likely change somewhat. I am giving you daily details, in an effort to paint a possible picture of what to expect as the cold air arrives. Understand that updates and changes are LIKELY!





Christmas Day seems to be settling in as a wet mix at low elevations with temps above freezing. Sticking snow could begin at 500' or closer to 1,000 feet. The snow chance for the valley floor begins Saturday overnight into Sunday. Amounts listed are based on the best info currently available. The air may stay cold enough for the totals to stack up day after day. I do see a dry break Monday pm and Tuesday morning. Cold east winds developing Tuesday could lead to calm wind areas Wednesday and Thursday mornings dipping into the teens.


Multiple snow chances show up through the 10th day of January.

-Rod Hill

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Christmas Weekend Snow Chance is Real

By Rod Hill on 2021-12-18

EXTENDED THOUGHTS INTO CHRISTMAS WEEKEND:

Typical temp ranges and rain at times Wednesday and Thursday of next week. While forecast models still differ in outcomes, all seem to agree that starting Friday, our air will get colder into Christmas weekend.

As I often do, I am trusting the EURO MODEL to take the lead. The 1st map below is 4PM Christmas Day Surface Map.





The double LOWS near the Canadian border mark the true boundary between a typical air mass and cold air from northern Canada to our north. Notice our region is on the bottom or south side of the low - this will produce west winds and either all rain at low elevations or a rain snow mix, with daytime temps above freezing.

Little change Sunday, fast forward to next Monday’s map below Dec 27th (the 2nd map).







At present, all models agree that Sunday night into Monday, we will finally be in the grip of a north Canadian air mass. Notice the low center over southern Oregon, putting Portland in the snow zone to the north of the low center. Cold air indices are plenty cold enough for 24 hour temps to hold below freezing and all moisture to fall as snow. The Monday scenario would have a good chance to produce at least 6” of snow accumulation in downtown Portland and all low evaluation areas.

Starting this Friday, low snow levels at least below 2,000’ are looking likely and each day will be tracked closely. It is certainly possible, that accumulating snow to some degree occurs earlier than Monday the 27th. Lots to keep track of - Ho...ho...ho...!

Rod Hill
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Several Portland Snow Chances Through New Year's

By Rod Hill on 2021-12-13


An active December with low mountain snow levels and a threat of low elevation snow in the coming days is a weather story that may hang around through the new year. 


Snow levels have been near 1,000’ over the Coast Range with cold snow pockets in the hills of the west slope.  Meanwhile, snow level over the Cascades has generally been holding just above 1,500 feet.  Mountain passes over both ranges show snow cover on this Monday. 


The current fetch of moisture will break into widely scattered showers Monday overnight, allowing temps to lower to near freezing in Portland and Salem.  All low elevation areas could see flurries with lingering shower.  During the day Tuesday, mostly dry weather will bring a break from active weather with valley temps warming into the 30s. 


The next weather system arrives Wednesday morning as a low center approaches the coast.  Eastwinds are likely to pull through the gorge into the valley, bringing the possibility of a morning rain-snow mix at low elevations, including Portland.  At this time, the valley flow is expect to hold above freezing and see a possible early wintry mix change to all rain during the day with high temps reaching 40 degrees or better.  FUTURECAST from KGW TV does show accumulating snow in the West Hills Wednesday morning and possibly other high hills above 500 feet.  Worst case scenario would see 6” accumulate in the hills before moisture tapers off Wednesday evening.  Odds possible accumulations of no more than 3", followed by a wet mix or transition to afternoon rain. 


Our local weather may see several snow chances through New Year’s weekend.  A cold front Wednesday December 22nd may open the door for cold Canadian air and at least some snow possibility into Christmas weekend at lowest elevations.  As cold air gathering in Canada advects southward, our local chance for valley snow will be heightened in the coming weeks.   For now, keep yourself updated for possible winter weather 
in the days and weeks ahead. 

Meteorologist Rod Hill

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Warm November Sets Records / 3RD Warmest All-Time

By Rod Hill on 2021-11-30

Our crazy warm November finishes as the 3rd warmest all-time at PDX in terms of mean temperature.  The mean of 50.4 was 3.3 degrees warmer than normal.  The average high of 56 degrees was the 6th warmest and the average low of 44.7 ties 1983 for the 3rd warmest low temp average in November.  


The last few days have seen three consecutive record highs tied or broken at PDX:



Nov 27 - Record high of 63 degrees
Nov 28 - Record high of 63 degrees
Nov 29 - Record high of 58 degrees 


Despite mild overnight lows near 50 degrees, no high-low records were reached. 


Total November rainfall at PDX was  6.43 inches, well above the monthly norm of
5.45 inches.  It may sound crazy, but rain totals would need to top 9 inches to crack the top 
5 wettest list.  The wettest November on record was back in 2006 when 11.92” of rain was
collected.  Still our water year Oct. 1st - Sept. 30th, is off to a good start with a current total of
10.14 inches.  The surplus may be smaller than you think at +1.45 inches.  


I am eyeing a much colder weather pattern for December with good hope of low Cascade snow levels. 


Rod Hill 

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Rain Event Update Shows Some Improvement

By Rod Hill on 2021-11-11

Flood Watch for most of western Oregon and southwest Washington through Friday night.  Waves of steady
rain will generally push north up through Portland this morning as warm air advection continues. Heavy
rain rates at times up to .50” of rain an hour with embedded convective activity.  There were lightning strikes
near the coast last night.  Spotty thunder continues to be possible. 


(Flood Watch in dark green)




Early morning temps are near and above 50 degrees including the gorge.  Winds today
will be south 10-20 mph, gusty to 35 in elevation and easterly at times in the gorge to 20 mph. 
I expect rain to pick up in the north valley through mid-morning.  The main rain zone will life north 
to Longview early this afternoon, bringing a rain break with showers this afternoon to Portland and Salem.   
The rain break will help limit high water spots.  24-hour rainfall today near 1.00” in the flat
of the valley. Temps across the region will be near and above 60 degrees. 


TONIGHT:  Rain picks up with waves of steady rain overnight, with steady temps in the mid 50s to 60 degrees and south breezes. 


FRIDAY:  THE MAIN RAIN EVENT as a cold front drops southward into the valley and stalls with the upper
flow pattern overriding.  This will be the so called atmospheric river plume of moisture.  I expect steady rain, 
much of the day and into early evening.  24-hour rainfall amounts will likely exceed and inch and could be 
much higher if the front stalls for hours. Temps will hold 60-64 degrees across the region with southwest winds
10-20 mph. 


FRIDAY NIGHT:  Current timing as the rain dropping southeast of our region during the evening hours and the 
rain event coming to a close.  Low temps 46-53 degrees.  Total rainfall for the 60 hour event will exceed 2.00 inches in Portland. 

As of 10:00 a.m. Thursday morning, area rivers are projected to remain below flood stage through the event. 

Rod Hill 







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