By Rod Hill on 2012-03-22
Today, March 21st becomes the 6th day of at least a trace of snow this month at PDX. The record for March days with measurable snowfall is 8, back in 1951. The latest in the season to record a trace of snow on the ground is April 9th, back in 1980.
The 7.5" on the ground in Eugene becomes the new record for snow depth this late in the season! The following snow report is courtesy of the NWS.
REPORTS COLLECTED BETWEEN: 0430 PM PDT 03/20/2012 AND 0430 PM PDT 03/21/2012 LOCATION SNOW (IN) DURATION REPORT TIME --------------------------------------------------------------------- ...COAST RANGE... SWISS HOME,OR..............2.0 6 HR 1259 PM PDT 03/21 ...INLAND VALLEYS... EUGENE,OR..................7.5 12 HR 0901 AM PDT 03/21 CORVALLIS,OR...............7.0 24 HR 1146 AM PDT 03/21 SOUTH EUGENE,OR............7.0 12 HR 0844 AM PDT 03/21 SWEET HOME,OR..............6.0 8 HR 0917 AM PDT 03/21 SPRINGFIELD,OR.............6.0 24 HR 0749 AM PDT 03/21 EUGENE,OR..................6.0 12 HR 0853 AM PDT 03/21 SW EUGENE,OR...............6.0 8 HR 0813 AM PDT 03/21 SPRINGFIELD,OR.............5.5 12 HR 0852 AM PDT 03/21 SWEET HOME,OR..............6.0 8 HR 0915 AM PDT 03/21 BROWNSVILLE,OR.............5.0 12 HR 0941 AM PDT 03/21 LEBANON,OR.................5.0 12 HR 0841 AM PDT 03/21 SPRINGFIELD,OR.............5.0 20 HR 1051 AM PDT 03/21 SANTA CLARA,OR (400 FT)....5.0 24 HR 0758 AM PDT 03/21 EUGENE,OR..................4.5 12 HR 0733 AM PDT 03/21 PHILOMATH,OR...............4.2 14 HR 0125 PM PDT 03/21 HARRISBURG,OR..............4.0 12 HR 0718 AM PDT 03/21 EUGENE,OR..................4.0 12 HR 0728 AM PDT 03/21 ALBANY,OR..................4.0 12 HR 1235 PM PDT 03/21 SOUTH SALEM,OR (500 FT)....3.5 8 HR 0904 AM PDT 03/21 SPRINGFIELD,OR.............3.5 24 HR 0846 AM PDT 03/21 NORTH ALBANY,OR (500 FT)...3.5 8 HR 0826 AM PDT 03/21 SOUTH SALEM,OR (500 FT)...3.0 8 HR 0748 AM PDT 03/21 SWEET HOME,OR..............3.5 12 HR 0711 AM PDT 03/21 DAMASCUS,OR (EL. 809 FT)...3.0 6 HR 0809 AM PDT 03/21 PHILOMATH,OR...............2.5 12 HR 1251 PM PDT 03/21 LEBANON,OR.................1.0 24 HR 0857 AM PDT 03/21 STAYTON,O9R................1.0 12 HR 0858 AM PDT 03/21 HAPPY VALLEY,OR............1.0 24 HR 0112 PM PDT 03/21 CORVALLIS,OR...............1.0 12 HR 0740 AM PDT 03/21 STAYTON,OR.................1.0 4 HR 0407 AM PDT 03/21 OREGON CITY,OR.............0.5 12 HR 0901 AM PDT 03/21 SALEM,OR...................0.5 12 HR 0736 AM PDT 03/21 ...FOOTHILLS... DETROIT,OR.................15.0 24 HR 0105 PM PDT 03/21 SANDY,OR (1700 FT).........10.0 24 HR 0111 PM PDT 03/21 CASCADIA,OR (900 FT).......10.0 24 HR 0852 AM PDT 03/21 GATES,OR...................8.0 8 HR 0732 AM PDT 03/21 VIDA,OR....................7.0 12 HR 0726 AM PDT 03/21 SILVERTON,OR (1600 FT).....7.0 6 HR 0859 AM PDT 03/21 RIPPLEBROOK,OR (1509 FT)...6.0 8 HR 0813 AM PDT 03/21 SANDY,OR...................3.0 12 HR 0836 AM PDT 03/21 MARION FORKS,OR............3.0 24 HR 0819 AM PDT 03/21 ...OREGON CASCADES... TIMBERLINE LODGE,OR........32.0 24 HR 0430 PM PDT 03/21 MT. HOOD TIMBERLINE SNOTEL.23.0 24 HR 0830 AM PDT 03/21 GOVERNMENT CAMP SKI BOWL...21.0 24 HR 0830 AM PDT 03/21 GOVERNMENT CAMP,OR.........20.0 24 HR 0818 AM PDT 03/21 BENNETT PASS,OR............20.0 18 HR 0429 PM PDT 03/21 SANTIAM PASS,OR............19.0 18 HR 0430 PM PDT 03/21 BLAZED ALDER SNOTEL........19.0 24 HR 0830 AM PDT 03/21 TOMBSTONE,OR...............18.0 18 HR 0431 PM PDT 03/21 MT. HOOD MEADOWS...........18.0 24 HR 0830 AM PDT 03/21 DALY LAKE SNOTEL...........17.0 24 HR 0830 AM PDT 03/21 WHITE RIVER,OR.............17.0 18 HR 0429 PM PDT 03/21 SANTIAM JUNCTION SNOTEL....15.0 24 HR 0830 AM PDT 03/21 MCKENZIE SNOTEL............15.0 24 HR 0900 AM PDT 03/21 SOUTH FK BULL RUN SNOTEL...14.0 24 HR 0830 AM PDT 03/21 ROARING RIVER SNOTEL.......8.0 24 HR 0900 AM PDT 03/21 ...SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES... SPENCER MEADOWS SNOTEL,WA..22.0 24 HR 0830 AM PDT 03/21 JUNE LAKE SNOTEL,WA........11.0 24 HR 0830 AM PDT 03/21 SPIRIT LAKE SNOTEL,WA......10.0 18 HR 0830 AM PDT 03/21 ...UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY... PARKDALE,OR................1.0 18 HR 0430 PM PDT 03/21 $$ |
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By Rod Hill on 2012-03-19
Who can forget March of 2011. PDX set records for the number of days with measurable rainfall at 28 & number of consecutive days with rain at 23. Total precipitation for the month was 6.43", which was good for 5th place on the all-time list. The wettest March at PDX, (records date to 1941), was 7.52" back in 1957.
To date, PDX has 3.95" of precipitation and counting. Normal for the entire month is 3.71 inches. The number of days with measurable rainfall so far is 12. Forecast charts show another 1-2" of rain this coming week, which would put us in range of last year's wet March total. So far this month, PDX has recorded at least a trace of snow 4 days - likely not a record, but certainly unusual! April 9th, back in 1980 did record a trace of snow, (in case you are wondering).
Let's hope April is not a repeat of last spring, when the wet pattern continued and the month saw 5.04" of rain, good for 3rd wettest at PDX!
Spring begins, Tuesday March 20th.
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By Rod Hill on 2012-03-14
LOCATION SNOW (IN) DURATION REPORT TIME --------------------------------------------------------------------- ...COAST... TILLAMOOK,OR...............8.5 8 HR 0115 AM PDT 03/13 NEWPORT,OR.................6.0 6 HR 0102 AM PDT 03/13 SILETZ,OR..................6.0 12 HR 0902 AM PDT 03/13 WALDPORT,OR................6.0 6 HR 1215 AM PDT 03/13 FLORENCE,OR................5.0 4 HR 1205 AM PDT 03/13 ...COAST RANGE... SUNSET SUMMIT,OR...........9.0 24 HR 0655 AM PDT 03/13 WILSON RIVER, OR...........5.0 24 HR 0402 AM PDT 03/13 ...INLAND VALLEYS... LIVINGSTON MTN CAMAS,WA....9.0 12 HR 0902 AM PDT 03/13 BLODGETT,OR................7.5 18 HR 0132 PM PDT 03/13 HOCKINSON, WA AT 1350 FT...6.0 12 HR 0755 AM PDT 03/13 HAPPY VALLEY, OR...........5.0 6 HR 0609 AM PDT 03/13 BORING,OR..................4.0 UNKNOWN 0433 AM PDT 03/13 LEBANON,OR.................3.0 12 HR 0755 AM PDT 03/13 LEABURG,OR.................3.0 UNKNOWN 0639 AM PDT 03/13 CANBY,OR...................2.5 3 HR 0159 AM PDT 03/13 SALEM,OR AT 800 FT.........2.5 12 HR 0935 AM PDT 03/13 BATTLE GROUND,WA...........2.5 8 HR 0742 AM PDT 03/1 LONGVIEW,WA AT 1150 FT.....2.0 UNKNOWN 1257 AM PDT 03/13 CAMAS,WA...................2.0 1 HR 1110 PM PDT 03/12 WASHOUGAL,WA...............2.0 UNKNOWN 0427 AM PDT 03/13 MILWAUKIE,OR...............1.2 UNKNOWN 0317 AM PDT 03/12 WILSONVILLE,OR.............1.1 UNKNOWN 0414 AM PDT 03/13 SALEM,OR...................1.0 1 HR 1225 AM PDT 03/13 TUALATIN,OR................1.0 6 HR 0629 AM PDT 03/13 SPRINGFIELD,OR.............1.0 12 HR 1009 AM PDT 03/13 GRESHAM,OR.................1.0 5 HR 0317 AM PDT 03/13 SE PORTLAND,OR.............1.0 12 HR 0800 AM PDT 03/13 ...CASCADES... SWIFT CREEK, WA...........26.0 30 HR 1100 AM PDT 03/13 JUNE LAKE, WA.............23.0 30 HR 1100 AM PDT 03/13 SPENCER MEADOWS, WA.......21.0 30 HR 1100 AM PDT 03/13 SHEEP CANYON, WA..........19.0 30 HR 1100 AM PDT 03/13 SURPRISE LAKES, WA........15.0 24 HR 0500 AM PDT 03/13 SPIRIT LAKE, WA...........15.0 24 HR 0500 AM PDT 03/13 BENNETT PASS, MT HOOD, OR..9.0 24 HR 0335 AM PDT 03/13 WILLAMETTE PASS, OR........8.0 24 HR 0948 AM PDT 03/13 MT HOOD MEADOWS, OR........7.0 24 HR 0400 AM PDT 03/13 GOVERNMENT CAMP, OR........7.0 24 HR 0400 AM PDT 03/13 TIMBERLINE LODGE, OR.......6.0 24 HR 0404 AM PDT 03/13 MCKENZIE, OR...............6.0 24 HR 0500 AM PDT 03/13 ROARING RIVER, OR..........6.0 6 HR 0500 AM PDT 03/13 WELCHES,OR.................4.0 24 HR 0131 PM PDT 03/13 TOMBSTONE, OR..............3.0 24 HR 0457 AM PDT 03/13 CLACKAMAS LAKE, OR.........3.0 24 HR 0500 AM PDT 03/13 WHITE RIVER, OR............3.0 24 HR 0654 AM PDT 03/13 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
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By Rod Hill on 2012-03-05
With a dusting of snow last week, the National Weather Service recorded .3" of snow in the record book and talk of another possible dusting this Monday night and Tuesday morning, here is the list of late season snow events:
1. Latest in the season major snowfall: 7.6" of snow, March 7-8th 1951 / March of 1951 had 8 days with measurable snowfall!
2. Light dusting, March 17th, 2002
3. A trace of snow March 28th, 2008
4. A trace of snow, (light dusting), April, 9th, 1980.
The record book shows multiple April days with a trace of snow. Most of these days simply had snow in the air.
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By Rod Hill on 2012-02-15
The 6.0 magnitude earthquake Tuesday, 152 miles west of Bandon, Oregon was the latest quake in the most active quake zone close to the west coast. In fact, the Blanco Transform Fault Zone has triggered some 1,500 earthquakes over the past 40 years. Back in 2008, the zone produced a swarm of 600 quakes over a ten day period. Doctor John Nabelek, with Oregon State University is a lead researcher of the Blanco Fault Zone and says despite the active zone,a tsunami is highly unlikely. The movement of a transform fault is horizontal in nature, as the plates move sideways past each other. This type of motion does not create enough vertical displacement on the ocean floor to generate tsunamis. The professor's research indicated the strongest possible quake in the area could be a 6.5 magnitude. He believes a 6.0 quake like Tuesday's is generated once each five years.
The active fault zone is close enough to the west coast to be picked up by many of the 60 land-based seismographs deployed from British Columbia to California. This fact, makes the zone a unique scientific learning experience for geologists. Dr. Nabelek, says the transform fault is similar to the well known San Andreas. The Blanco Zone is more active, but the San Andreas has the potential to produce stronger magnitude quakes, a fact California knows all too well.
Weak earthquakes near magnitude 1.0 occurred Tuesday near Sherwood, Oregon and Hockinson, Washington.
One well know reason for the high number of earthquakes near the west coast is the northward movement of the Pacific Plate. The fault of the Pacific Plate is off of the Northwest coast, but inland across California. Areas west of the fault are pushing northward at the rate of about 1.5" each year. Scientist estimate the land know as Los Angeles will move to the north, passing present day San Francisco in roughly 20 million years!
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By Rod Hill on 2012-02-03
Groundhog day is famous for figuring out if winter is almost gone or plans on sticking around. Locally, a lack of fog this morning means, local critters likely saw their shadows and returned to their holes, signaling at least 6 more weeks of winter. Even if true, that means spring would begin on time, around March 20th. Sounds great to me!
Not to discount the groundhog theory, but consider the following:
Forecast charts through the 17th of February, show the lowest snow level at 3,000 feet. Most days, if the charts are correct will see snow levels above 4,000 feet. This is a great indicator of no Arctic or really cold air expected. Once we make it into March, the chance of a large Arctic outbreak becomes less likely.
With mostly dry weather over the next 10 days, we will need a very wet final week of February to finish close to even in terms of precipitation. La Nina remains in place, and National Weather Service outlooks call for cooler and wetter than normal weather through April.
Here is what continues to interest me: All but one of the last 10 February's have seen below normal precipitation. In fact the average over the 10 years is 2.39", only 57% of what is considered average. There seems to be at least a short term climate shift, bringing us very quiet weather the last full month of the winter season.
Our chance for snow as you now, greatly declines once we get into March. If forecast charts are correct, the only chance of significant valley snowfall this season will be the last week of February and the first week of March. There are no signs this will happen. What I am saying is, our chance for snow looks very low until the end of the month. Historically, the latest Portland has had decent snow was 8" on March 7-8th back in 1951. So again, time is running out!
In conclusion, all of the above simply means with a quiet forecast through Feb. 17th, the window for active, bitter cold winter weather is quickly closing. Due to increasing sunshine, that began with the winter solstice, the daily normal high is near 50 degrees as Feb. begins. Remember, past history has shown March & April to be wetter months than February. Maybe winter weather is almost over, but the cool, rainy season has a long ways to go!
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By Rod Hill on 2012-01-20
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES OVER NORTHWEST OREGON. BELOW ARE SOME OF THE RAINFALL TOTALS RECEIVED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. REPORTS COLLECTED BETWEEN: 0700 AM PST 01/17/2012 AND 1225 PM PST 01/19/2012 LOCATION RAIN (IN) DURATION REPORT TIME --------------------------------------------------------------------- SWISS HOME,OR..............15.50 48 HR 0908 AM PST 01/19 FALLS CITY,OR..............10.20 50 HR 1000 AM PST 01/19 MAPLETON,OR................9.40 50 HR 1000 AM PST 01/19 DETROIT,OR.................7.20 50 HR 1000 AM PST 01/19 COUGAR DAM,OR..............7.06 50 HR 1000 AM PST 01/19 COTTAGE GROVE,OR...........7.06 50 HR 1000 AM PST 01/19 LEES CAMP,OR...............6.90 50 HR 1000 AM PST 01/19 PHILOMATH,OR...............6.75 50 HR 1158 AM PST 01/19 SCOTTS MILLS,OR............6.70 50 HR 1000 AM PST 01/19 THREE LYNX,OR..............6.00 50 HR 1000 AM PST 01/19 GRAND RONDE,OR.............5.40 50 HR 1000 AM PST 01/19 ESTACADA,OR................4.85 50 HR 1000 AM PST 01/19 LEBANON,OR.................4.52 24 HR 1221 PM PST 01/19 HASKINS DAM,OR.............4.50 50 HR 1000 AM PST 01/19 LINCOLN CITY,OR............4.00 24 HR 0846 AM PST 01/19 CORVALLIS,OR...............3.93 24 HR 0832 AM PST 01/19 HILLS CREEK,OR.............3.88 50 HR 1000 AM PST 01/19 INDEPENDENCE,OR............3.55 24 HR 0850 AM PST 01/19 FOSTER DAM,OR..............3.34 50 HR 1000 AM PST 01/19 LOWELL,OR..................3.29 50 HR 1000 AM PST 01/19 JEWELL,OR..................3.10 50 HR 1000 AM PST 01/19 DETROIT,OR.................3.10 24 HR 0927 AM PST 01/19 DORENA,OR..................3.10 50 HR 1000 AM PST 01/19 INDEPENDENCE,OR............2.75 24 HR 0800 AM PST 01/18 HOOD RIVER,OR..............2.70 50 HR 1000 AM PST 01/19 NEWPORT,OR.................2.65 12 HR 0833 AM PST 01/19 CASCADIA,OR................2.55 24 HR 1001 AM PST 01/19 TILLAMOOK,OR...............2.53 24 HR 0536 PM PST 01/18 AUMSVILLE,OR...............2.50 24 HR 0113 AM PST 01/19 PHILOMATH,OR...............2.40 24 HR 1208 AM PST 01/19 ESTACADA,OR................2.04 24 HR 0815 AM PST 01/19 BLODGETT,OR................1.92 12 HR 0826 AM PST 01/19 VANCOUVER,WA...............1.31 12 HR 1159 AM PST 01/19 KALAMA,WA..................0.55 24 HR 1132 AM PST 01/19
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By Rod Hill on 2012-01-20
Watching the following rivers:
1. Luckiamute, near Suver
FS 27 Ft / 7:00 a.m. Friday 32.2' & receding, below flood stage Sunday morning. (Crest 34.2' Thu. Evening)
2. Marys River, near Philomath
FS 20 Ft / 7:00 a.m. Friday 20.1' & steady, below flood stage Sunday morning.
3. Pudding River, at Aurora
FS 22 Ft / 7:00 a.m. Friday 26.4' & rising to steady, stays near 24 Ft through this Tuesday. Flooding will continue all weekend.
4. South Yamhill, at McMinnville
FS 50 Ft / 7:00 a.m. Friday 50.1'& steady, below flood stage Saturday afternoon.
5. Clackamas, near Estacada
FS 20 Ft / 7:00 a.m. Friday 19.2', will stay below flood stage, recede this weekend
6. Johnson Creek, near Sycamore
FS 11 Ft / 7:00 a.m. Friday 8', will rise tonight, but expected to remain below flood stage this weekend.
7. Willamette River, Portland
FS 18 Ft / 7:00 a.m. Friday 11 Ft, expected to crest near 14 feet Saturday, then recede
8. Columbia River, Vancouver
FS 16 Ft / 7:00 a.m. Friday 10.1 Ft, expected to crest 12.3 feet Saturday, then recede
9. Willamette, Oregon City, Above the falls
FS 64 Ft / Friday 2:00 p.m. 63.5', expected crest 64.8', Saturday afternoon
10. Nehalem at Foss
FS 14' / expected crest 15.1' Saturday p.m. & again next Thursday
11. Wilson River at Tillamook
FS 12' / Friday 2:00 p.m. 8.5', crest Saturday 10.5 feet.
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By Rod Hill on 2012-01-18
NEW SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE FOLLOWING IS A BRIEF SUMMARY OF VARIOUS NEW SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ALL REPORTS ARE APPROXIMATELY 24-HOUR TOTALS ENDING AT 600 AM PST UNLESS NOTED. LOCATION SNOW (IN) REMARKS --------------------------------------------------------------------- TOUTLE,WA..............................18.0 LA CENTER,WA...........................13.0 PARKDALE,OR............................13.0 RECEIVED WITHIN 9 HR RAINIER,OR.............................12.0 YACOLT,WA..............................12.0 RECEIVED WITHIN 12 HR BRUSH PRAIRIE,WA.......................11.0 STEVENSON, WA...........................6.0 RECIEVED WITHIN 10 HR LONGVIEW,WA.............................5.0 RECEIVED WITHIN 12 HR CAMAS,WA................................4.8 HOCKINSON,WA 620 FT ELEVATION...........4.5 RECEIVED WITHIN 12 HR KALAMA,WA...............................4.0 RECEIVED WITHIN 6 HR ST HELENS,OR............................4.0 RECEIVED WITHIN 12 HR HAPPY VALLEY,OR.........................4.0 WASHOUGAL,WA............................3.1 RECEIVED WITHIN 3 HR VANCOUVER,WA............................3.0 RECEIVED WITHIN 3 HR OCEAN PARK,WA...........................3.0 RECEIVED WITHIN 6 HR SALMON CREEK,WA.........................3.0 RECEIVED WITHIN 12 HR ASTORIA,OR..............................2.0 RECEIVED WITHIN 1 HR PORTLAND,OR.............................2.0 RECEIVED WITHIN 6 HR OREGON CITY,OR..........................2.0 RECEIVED WITHIN 2 HR
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By Rod Hill on 2012-01-18
I am writing this letter as the coast reports 100 mph winds. It reminds me that people often say - wow, your job is so easy, all you have to say is rain and more rain. Actually, this time of year on a daily basis, forecasters study wind threats at the coast, snow levels in the Cascades and recently on the low levels. Will the gorge play a factor in the weather? How much rain will fall, what is the temperature going to be and on and on and on! Lets say a storm episode over several days from the coast to the Cascades has 10 important elements that a forecaster is tracking. Often, 8 or 9 parts of the entire forecast is nearly exactly correct! Of course, like anything, it is the 1-2 items that people remember and poke fun and anger at.
Here is my record for the past few days overall.
1. Coast to see one it's largest wind storms of the past two years, with winds reaching 100 mph. (this verified about an hour ago)
2. Cascades to see feet of snow (okay - that was easy LOL)
3. Days of areas below 500 feet seeing a mix of rain and snow. Portland metro staying wet, not snowy - despite computer models that showed daily accumulations! (good forecast until last evening!)
4. Daily accumulations of 1-3" possible in the high metro hills. (not a bad forecast, although a couple of 12 hour periods had more like 4" +)
5. Tuesday evening: I said, Salem was in the warm sector and would stay near 40 with rain all night. (this was a good call)
6. Tuesday evening: I continued what I has said all along, Portland & low elevations would stay above freezing and not see any widespread accumulation. ( Okay - I Get an "F" on this one. After days of good forecasting, I blew the two-minute drill and lost the game.)
7. Portland would wake up to temperatures 36-39 degrees, with steady rain falling. ( A Few cold pockets remained, but this was an "A+")
So after days of working, I missed the most important 6 hour period of the entire forecast sequence. It should be noted, the one forecast model I often trust - had been way too wet and two cold for days. However, the temperature profile of the NAM model as exactly right last night and this morning. Many forecasters, I know for a fact predicted last night perfectly, but were not so great in the previous days - however, like my old drama teacher used to say.....nail the opening and the finally, no one remembers the middle. She is likely correct.
Looking back at last night, I am guilty of trying to be too perfect instead of simply saying......I am not sure, but snow will remain possible until early morning. What killed my forecast was a period of light to north winds, north of Woodburn. I expected breezes last night, which would have likely held the temperature up. As for now time to roll up the sleeves and earn trust for the next time.
Two last points. Always take note when the forecaster says there is lots of moisture available, that mean lots of things can happen. Remember, no one that I know of delivers a perfect forecast time and time again. You should expect the forecast during a storm event to be "mostly right". The trick is being ready for the couple of things that turn out to be bad information. (like last night)
As always, thank you for using my forecast,
Rod Hill
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