Rod's Weather Headlines

New Season Begins

By Rod Hill on 2011-06-20


Summer officially begins with the summer solstice on Tuesday, June 21 at 10:16 a.m. PDT.  The earth is tilted so that the north pole is at its closest point with the sun. (Yet, the earth will be at its farthest distance from the sun, called aphelion, on July 5)  As a result there will be more minutes of sunlight in the northern hemisphere than there are at any other time of the year.  The word “solstice” is derived from the Latin sol-stitium, for sun-standing.  The summer solstice is the time of the year when the sun stops its northern climb and stands briefly before turning back toward the equator. As seen from Portland, the sun will reach its highest northern point in the sky at 67.54 degrees from the horizon on June 21 at approximately 1:12 p.m.  From March 21 until September 24, there are more hours of daylight than darkness.  After June 21, the days will gradually grow shorter until December 21, the winter solstice.

Not everybody is celebrating. Far to our south, across the equator, winter has arrived. For people in the southern hemisphere, June 21st, will be the shortest day of the year. It also means the beginning of their winter. 

Six months from now, when the earth has made half of its yearly trip around the sun, the northern hemisphere will experience that cold weather. December 21 will be winter solstice. That's when we have the fewest hours of sunlight and winter officially begins.

(the above is courtesy of Jim Todd, OMSI Planetarium Manager)


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Summer Solstice: Tuesday 10:16 a.m. PDT

By Rod Hill on 2011-06-19

Summer begins with the solstice Tuesday morning at 10:16 a.m. our time.  This will be the day with the sun high in the northern sky and is known as the longest day of the year.  The weather should cooperate with sunshine and Portland metro highs in the 80s!  I still believe a very nice summer is in store for us.  I look for our typical dry, sunny season July and August.  Last year saw July & August average about 1/2 degree below normal temperature.  The two months were below normal in precipitation.  I think what we remember, was the high number of cloudy mornings into early afternoon.

This summer, I expect near normal temperatures, which means lots of days 70-85 degrees.  Normal rainfall, which means most days will be dry and mostly sunny skies by noon if not before most days.  In fact 15 July days could be sunny from from mid-morning through the afternoon.  Our traditional dry season is July 6th - August 20th.  This time span averages roughly a 15% chance of daily rainfall.  The 7 week span can be totally dry some years!

Happy summer - I hope we all enjoy!!

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Warm & Dry Month Possible

By Rod Hill on 2011-06-06

La Nina has ended and we may see a rapid turn around in our weather.  Forecast charts through June 20th, show all but a few dry days.  High temperatures currently show most days in the 70s with a few warmer streaks in the 80s.  

The last time we saw a warmer and drier than average month was January.  The last warm weather month that was dry and warmer than average was September of 2009!  So, yes, if we have a warm & dry June, it will be the first warm season fabulous month in nearly two years!  (Speaking to those of you who like warm, sunny days).

This summer will be a neutral season, meaning no La or El Nino.  I see no reason, not to expect a very nice Pacific Northwest June - September.  

Fingers crossed!!

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High Water Impacts Fleet Week

By Rod Hill on 2011-06-01

Both the Columbia & Willamette rivers continue to be near 17 feet.  Forecasters believe the Columbia will remain below 18' into next week and hold nearly steady.  The Vancouver flood stage is 16 feet.  

Flood stage at downtown Portland is 18 feet.  The Willamette is also expected to hold steady into next week.  The downtown sea wall is 30 feet high.  There are no indications that the river will reach above the 18 feet flood stage.  KGW has reported that at least one fleet week ship has been changed to a ship more able to dock along the high water.  At this time, fleet week is expected to go off without a hitch, but again ship types may have to be altered due to the high river level. 

It should be noted, that an expected warmup this weekend and next week has been factored into current river level projections. 

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Portland equals Fairbanks

By Rod Hill on 2011-05-29

If you have not heard, Alaska has been having a heatwave.  The past few days have seen temperatures in the 80s!  Here is a comparison of high temperatures this month for Portland and Fairbanks:

Average High:                Portland   63 degrees  /  Fairbanks  62

Warmest Temperature:  Portland   74 degrees  /  Fairbanks  85

# of 70 degrees Days:    Portland    5               /  Fairbanks  10

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All & all, Fairbanks has been warmer in terms of individual days!  Forecast charts continue to show a long, warm streak starting this coming weekend for our area and lasting much of the following week.  If correct, most days would see highs in the 70s and maybe hitting 80 degrees!  

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Columbia to see minor flooding

By Rod Hill on 2011-05-24

Update:  Flood Watch Issued for Columbia River.  The river is expected to rise slightly above the 16 feet flood stage Tuesday afternoon at Vancouver.  River levels may continue to slowly rise this week and then slowly recede next week. 
Near and just above the 16' flood stage:  Minor flooding of some lowland access roads and along the Vancouver walkway. River currents will be very strong and the water temperature is very cold. Please be safe and stay away from the banks of the river. 
The river is still expected to remain well below 18 feet.  At 18 feet, more serious flooding takes place.  But to repeat, the river is expected to only slightly rise above the 16' flood stage.  
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Late season snow is filling area streams and rivers.  The Columbia at Vancouver has reaches the 16 feet flood stage and is expected to hold steady through mid-week and then slowly recede.  Very little impact will be noticed unless the river rises to 18 feet - which is not expected.  The Willamette at Portland is flowing at 16 feet.  The downtown flood stage is 18 feet.  These highs water levels are forcing a higher number of bridge lifts than normal. Again the good news is that many area rivers are already receding.  The big rivers have reached their peak and will likely slowly recede this coming week. So very little if any problems will occur. 

Along the Columbia at Vancouver, the current stage of 16 feet is the highest since 1997!  This becomes only the 7th time during the late spring season, the Columbia has reached flood stage, since Bonneville Dam opened in 1937.  

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Snow Melt, Brings Higher Sea Levels

By Rod Hill on 2011-05-16

At least one computer model estimates a 3 - 5 feet rise in the world oceans by the year 2100.

The ice of Greenland and the rest of the Arctic is melting faster than expected.  In fact, long range climate models which often over project, cannot keep up with just how quickly the ice is disappearing.  Some reports indicate, rising sea levels could produce some of global warming's worst damage.  Oceans will not rise uniformly worldwide, but low-lying areas such as Florida could be hard-hit.  

Latest reports find that Greenland lost ice in 2004-2009, four times faster than in 1995-2000.  Arctic sea ice continues to shrink in summer coverage.  Latest predictions call for the ocean to be nearly ice-free by late summer in 30-40 years.  Information released by NOAA shows a steady rise in sea level since 1950.  The last 60 years has see roughly an 8" rise.  While each year does not show a rise, an upward trend is still believed to be in place. 

As many of you realize, reports of global warming and ice melt are considered by some to be controversial.  Reports disputing the above likely exist.  I choose to relay data I find accepted and passed on through NOAA, a government agency that oversees the National Weather Service.  

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Updated Summer Forecast

By Rod Hill on 2011-05-08

Still reason to hope for a nice summer!  (fingers crossed)

The latest update on La Nina, indicates a warming of Pacific waters, meaning La Nina is weakening!  In fact, a return to Neutral conditions is expected by June 1st.  If true, I would expect our weather to transition to a drier and warmer pattern as June begins.  

Current forecast charts show a cool, wet pattern to continue through May 23rd.  Summer outlook charts from the National Weather Service, show no confidence in summer precipitation patterns, which will likely mean a near normal dry season. Temperature charts show weak confidence towards slightly cooler than normal days June through August.  If we enter a period of Neutral conditions by June 1st, I believe odds favor a much drier and warmer summer than last year.  

As always, season outlooks should be taken with a grain of salt.  But to repeat, I see no reason to believe this summer will be like last.  Let's expect a trend towards drier, warmer days, starting with June.

Happy Summer (fingers crossed)

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March & April Combine For Records

By Rod Hill on 2011-05-02

Adding to the weather record of this cool and wet spring:

1.  Only 6 days reach 60 degrees through April 30th.  This is the fewest on record at PDX.  The old record was 9 days back in 1955.

2.  Total rainfall for March & April combined:  11.47" /  The old record was 10.87" in 1997

3.  April rainfall 5.04":  3rd wettest April on record.  Wettest is 5.26" in 1993

4.  3rd Coolest April High Temperature average:  56 degrees.  Coldest is 55 degrees, 1955

5.  5th Coolest April Mean Temperature:  47.9 degrees.  Coldest is 46.5 degrees, 1955

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PDX records for Portland date back to 1941. 

Forecast charts continue to show a switch to more "normal" weather patterns in the coming weeks.

 

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Wettest Water Year Since 1998- 99

By Rod Hill on 2011-04-30

April 2011 will likely go in the books with 5.04" of rainfall.  The total is the 3rd wettest April at PDX since records began in 1941.  The wettest April  at PDX was back in 1993 when 5.26" fell.  April 1996 had 5.12" for second place. Normal rainfall for the month is 2.64".

19 days had measurable rainfall, the record is 25 last year - 2010.   14 days is the 30 year average.   I will post the temperature report tomorrow when the NWS climate post is published. 

Most interesting to me is the following:  The water year total (Oct. 1st - Sept. 30th) is currently 39.33"  Portland will see it's first 40.00" of total precipitation for a water year since 1983-1984.  In terms of climate, 40" is what I consider the benchmark for a "wet" year.  The 11-year period ending of below 40.00" each water season ties the longest streak from 1983-84 to 1993-94.  Here is what is interesting, the prior so-called dry streak was followed by the very wet years of 1994-1998, including the infamous flooding year of 1996.  It will be interesting to see, if we cycle into a period of much wetter years.  

If it was not for our wet spring, PDX would likely have gone 12 water years without a 40" season for the first time in history!

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